682
FXUS63 KDLH 072059
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
259 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW MIX CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND
AN INCH OR LESS.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ONCE AGAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WEAK RIDGING WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A WARM FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. LOW STRATUS WAS TRYING TO CLEAR ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AREAS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE SEEING THE MOST
CLEARING. FOLLOWING HIGHS TODAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S, SHALLOW
MOISTURE FROM SNOWMELT WILL LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND
LOW STRATUS ONCE AGAIN. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. CONDITIONS
WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE FOG
LIKELY LINGERING THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING AND MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING
JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WHILE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY, COOLER AIR WILL BE SLOW TO ARRIVE KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S FOR MOST FOR ANOTHER DAY.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, THE LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN TO NEAR THE EASTERN UP OF MICHIGAN BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
THIS TRACK WILL PUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON THE EDGE OF THE
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO HEAVY, WET SNOW OVERNIGHT.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO AREAS EAST OF A SIREN
TO BAYFIELD LINE WITH ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING AROUND AN INCH OR
LESS. MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS, BUT THERE REMAIN A FEW OUTLIERS THAT RESULT IN HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS. THIS WOULD OCCUR OF THE LOW TRACK WAS SLIGHTLY
MORE TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, DRY AIR TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A SHARP CUTOFF IN PRECIPITATION ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY LEAD TO ENOUGH DIABATIC HEAT RELEASE TO
PULL THE LOW TRACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH, WHICH MAY REDUCE
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS ACROSS PRICE COUNTY AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF IRON AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THERE MAY ALSO BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS AND RAIN CHANGES TO
SNOW, BUT WITHOUT A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT, THESE CHANCES ARE
LOW AND HAVE KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S AS A WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS SHOW THESE TWO SYSTEMS MERGING
OVER THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE, BUT AS OF NOW,
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND BACK INTO THE 30S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING AGAIN MIDWEEK. THE PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
LOW STRATUS WITH AREAS OF FOG CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. SOME CLEARING IS STARTING TO WORK IN FROM NORTHWEST
AND IN PARTS OF THE ST. CROIX VALLEY, BUT THINKING THE LOW
STRATUS MAY HOLD ON THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE TONIGHT. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW
TO IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING ONCE AGAIN. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SYSTEM PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TOMORROW WILL TURN WINDS NORTHERLY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THEN INCREASE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE
SOUTH. THIS MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY THROUGH LATE
MORNING FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND
25 TO 27 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AND BRING INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM GRAND
MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE WHERE THERE IS A 50% CHANCE FOR GALES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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