249
FXUS63 KDLH 081001
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
401 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING. AREAS OF FOG PERSIST. SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY/TUESDAY.
- CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW IN NORTHWEST TO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING MOST OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING, THANKS TO COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE SHOULD SEE
THIS FOG DISSIPATE AND BURN OFF BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY.
DENSE FOG IS THE LEAST LIKELY NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, BUT AN AREA
OF WEAK PRECIPITATION IS MOVING IN FROM NW MN SPURRED ALONG BY THE
LEADING EDGE OF A JET STREAK. UNFORTUNATELY DUE TO SOME DRY MID
LEVEL AIR THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND HAS
LARGELY BEEN FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN LEADING TO A QUICK ICY
ACCUMULATION BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND LAKE OF THE WOODS. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRACKING AND HI-RES GUIDANCE THE BEST CHANCE FOR OUR
AREA TO SEE ANY OF THIS WOULD BE IN PORTIONS OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY
AND MAYBE NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY BETWEEN 5AM - 9AM.
TODAY WE'LL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP US IN AN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AGAIN
RETURNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE MID-GREAT LAKES, A
RAIN/SNOW GUMBO IS EXPECTED FOR NW WI TO NORTH-CENTRAL WI, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATIONS IN SAWYER, ASHLAND, IRON, AND PRICE
COUNTIES. WHILE THE SNOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL SHOULD BE MINIMAL
(LARGELY 1" OR LESS), IT WILL BE FAIRLY WET OR HEAVY AS IT
TRANSITIONS FROM RAIN. DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME HEAVY
BANDED SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS LOW, BUT 95% OF
GUIDANCE KEEPS IT OUT OF OUR AREA, WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF PRICE
AND IRON COUNTIES HAVING THE BEST CHANCE (5-10%) OF SEEING MORE THAN
4". MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT SOME EMINENTLY DRY MID
LEVEL AIR WILL EXIST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SO THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A FAIRLY SHARP SNOW CUTOFF ON THE NORTH SIDE.
WE SEE ONLY A BRIEF LULL WITH A PASSING WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MIDDAY FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PUSHING A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM ALONG THE BORDER WILL LIKELY BE
PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH A COLORADO
LOW SYSTEM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH THAT COULD SUPPLY AN EXTRA PUSH OF
MOISTURE. MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INITIAL NORTH-SOUTH
BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER NE MN BETWEEN 03-09Z SATURDAY
ALONG A GRADIENT OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A ZONE OF
NEGATIVE OMEGA ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A 500MB VORT MAX AND
SUPPORTING JET EXIT REGION. THIS BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, GETTING SOME A BOOST OF SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE AND SUPPORT BY THE MORE SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND WINDS
TURN TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY, A LAKE ENHANCED BOOST OF SNOW COULD BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTH SHORE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WE ARE LARGELY EXPECTING A DUSTING TO A COUPLE INCHES FROM THIS
SYSTEM, HIGHEST ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THAT INITIAL MERIDIONAL BAND, THERE ARE SOME
SUGGESTIONS FROM RECENT MODEL RUNS THAT A LOCALLY HIGHER AREA OF 2-
5" SNOW COULD FALL SOMEWHERE IN NE MN, BUT PLACEMENT OF THAT IS
ANYWHERE FROM BRAINERD TO GRAND PORTAGE AMONGST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, AND NON-EXISTANT IN SOME SOLUTIONS. CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
BOTH THE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY SYSTEMS SHOULD BRING SLIGHTLY CLOSER
TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR ANOTHER WARM UP
MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVER 32F AGAIN. SOME CLIPPERS COULD BRING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, FOLLOWING THAT MOST
SIGNALS POINT TO STEADILY DECREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID TO
LATE JANUARY WITH A CONTINUED MARGINALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
IFR TO LIFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING, IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL WHICH MAY ACTUALLY
RETURN TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY. HYR, HIB, DLH, AND
BRD SHOULD SEE FOG BURN OFF AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDDAY. A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR CEILING MAY AFFECT INL THROUGH THE DAY.
AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVE INTO NW WI AND BEGIN TO IMPACT HYR BY
THIS EVENING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
FAIRLY BENIGN AND MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING. SOME
NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND
PORTAGE THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
WITH PASSING SYSTEMS THURSDAY- SATURDAY, SOME ELEVATED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY
WHICH COULD REACH GALE CRITERIA ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-
019>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
144>148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ140.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...LEVENS
MARINE...LEVENS
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