125
FXUS63 KDLH 220549
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1149 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREMELY DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE DAYS BELOW ZERO.
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE,
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY AND DRIVING
CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE RAPIDLY.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT APPEAR
TO BE BENEFITING FROM A LITTLE MORE LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY THAN
WE EXPECTED EARLIER. AS A RESULT WE'RE SEEING HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH VISIBILITY OF 1/2 TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES. TOSSED OUT AND SPS TO CONVEY OUR CONCERN.
A POSSIBLE MESOLOW DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ADVANCING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ND/MN BORDER AREA. FROM THE MESOLOW
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPED. THE LINE OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EXTENDED INTO
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. I SEE NO REASON THAT FEATURE AND THE
LOCALIZED ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN BEFORE 00Z OR EVEN
02Z. AS A RESULT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA MAY EXPERIENCE A
BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE.
SNOW SQUALLS CERTAINLY SEEM POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO.
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST STARTING TONIGHT AND WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IS THE COLDEST OUR AREA
EXPERIENCED SINCE AROUND 2021. JANUARY 2019 IS ANOTHER ANALOG.
WE UPGRADED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING TO A WARNING WITH THIS UPDATE. THE EXTREME COLD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 17Z FRIDAY UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE
THOSE AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THIS STRETCH,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIMIT WIND
SPEEDS OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID, IF WE HAVE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE A RUN AT -35 TO -45
DEGREES, WHICH WOULD WARRANT WARNINGS REGARDLESS OF WIND.
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS, PLEASE SEE THE EXCELLENT DISCUSSION
FROM THIS MORNING BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026...
CLIPPER WITH LIGHT SNOW TODAY - EARLY THURSDAY:
SEEING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS SOME WEAK
SURFACE/MID-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND COUPLED
WITH A MOSTLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE, THE LOWEST FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF WHICH ARE LOCATED IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE HOUR BREAK IN SNOW FOR NE MN AROUND
SUNRISE EARLY THIS MORNING AND IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MID
MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW
FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY ALONG AND BEHIND A FRONT. SOME WRAP
AROUND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO AT LEAST THIS EVENING BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY POSSIBLY KEEPING THE
LIGHT SNOW GOING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AROUND 1-1.5" OR LESS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION, WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5"
IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE TEENS, THOUGH WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, STARTING THE TREND
OF SUBSTANTIALLY COLDER AIR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING
TONIGHT.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS COLD LATE THIS WEEK - WEEKEND:
A BRUTALLY COLD ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO WORK OVER THE
NORTHERN CONUS BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP INTO
THE -20S TO -30S DEGC TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE
GROUND, THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW 0F FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHLAND FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE BREEZY FOR THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY FRIDAY, RESULTING IN THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS BEING IN THE LATE THURSDAY INTO MIDDAY
FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, WHEN WIND CHILLS OF -40F TO -55F WILL BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN A FEW MPH STRONGER WIND GUSTS THAN THE CURRENT
FORECAST COULD PUSH THESE WIND CHILLS EVEN COLDER! WINDS
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN LATER FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND AS THE DEEP
HIGH PRESSURE--POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 1048 MB--SLIDES THROUGH.
FOR CONTEXT, THIS STRONG OF A HIGH PRESSURE IS NEAR THE MAXIMUM
OF THE NAEFS CFSR REANALYSIS CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE COLDEST ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES (NOT WIND CHILLS) WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND LOWS OF -30F TO -40F FOR
AREAS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. NEAR-LAKE SUPERIOR LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD IN THE -20S. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
THAT THE LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING COULD DIP BELOW -40F
IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SEVERAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED GIVEN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS COLD SPELL OCCURRING. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH DAYTIME THURSDAY, WE HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED SOUTH DUE TO A
LIMITED PERIOD OF DAYTIME MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES/WIND
CHILLS BEFORE THEY COME CRASHING DOWN AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WAS LEFT OUT
OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING DUE
LESS COLD LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO LARGELY KEEPING
WIND CHILLS THERE WARMER THAN -25F. STARTING THURSDAY EVENING
AND PERSISTING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY, THE ENTIRETY OF THE
NORTHLAND HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER AN EXTREME COLD WATCH AS LIMITED
DAYTIME MODERATION IN WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY. THE
EXPECTATION OF LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHTLY LESS COLD DAYS ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING SHOULD MORE LIKELY PLACE THOSE DAYS IN THE
WIND CHILL RANGE FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES RELATIVE TO THE
BRUTALLY COLD DAYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SOUTH SHORE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW:
THE VERY COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES/AIRMASS LATE THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND SHOULD KEEP LIGHT LAKE EFFECT GOING FOR THE SOUTH SHORE.
GIVEN HOW DRY THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE--PWATS OF AROUND
0.05" OR LESS, NEAR THE BOTTOM OF CLIMATOLOGY--EXPECT SNOW RATES
TO REMAIN LIGHT.
NEXT WEEK:
WE DO SEE SOME RELATIVELY "WARMER" TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS LARGELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PERIODIC SOUTH SHORE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, DON'T EXPECT MUCH IF
ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE NORTHLAND LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES DO HINT
AT A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION
SOMETIME IN THE NEXT TUESDAY NIGHT TO NEXT THURSDAY TIMEFRAME,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH THAT SYSTEM
REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE
NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS THOUGH, AND MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT
TIMES ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. COVERAGE OF CLOUDS IS GENERALLY BROKEN, AND THUS
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY TO BE VARIABLE BETWEEN
VFR/MVFR THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPORARY IFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT EITHER. ALL OF THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND POST-COLD FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL
CONVECTION. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE IN SPEED FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS WELL WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FLURRIES
MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND
CLOUDS IN GENERAL SHOULD START TO DIMINISH SOME IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND WILL
STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
SMALLER VESSELS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE COMBINATION OF
WIND, COLD AIR TEMPERATURES, AND WAVES WILL RAISE THE RISK OF
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS TONIGHT. THE
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY RISK WILL INCREASE THURSDAY FROM DULUTH TO
BAYFIELD. WIND AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE SATURDAY
MORNING ENDING THE RISK TO SMALLER VESSELS AND HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ018>021-
025-026-033>037.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR MNZ018>021-025-026-033>038.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ010>012.
WI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140>148-150.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ142.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 11 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR LSZ142.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR LSZ142.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 PM THURSDAY TO 4 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR LSZ145>147.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...HUYCK
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