443
FXUS63 KDLH 230545
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREMELY DANGEROUS COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO AND
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 40 TO 60 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.
- FLURRIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH VISIBILITY LESS THAN
1/2 MILE. ACCUMULATION GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
A FEW AREAS MAY SEE AROUND AN INCH.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
ONLY MINOR CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, SO WILL KEEP THAT EXCELLENT DISCUSSION AVAILABLE
BELOW.
BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THIN STRATUS THIS MORNING GAVE WAY TO
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TO DEVELOP. AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX STRETCHED FROM
NORTH OF CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR FARGO. GOES-EAST WATER
VAPOR AND IR IMAGERY REVEAL A DENSE AREA OF CLOUDS. GOES-EAST
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A CONVECTIVE APPEARANCE TO THE CLOUD
TOPS. REGIONAL RADAR FEATURED SNOW SHOWERS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED CHANGING VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS 1/4
MILE. THE SURGE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
FEATURES WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING.
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON
TRACK WITH FEW CHANGES. WE CONVERTED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING. THE
COLDEST AIR OF THIS OUTBREAK WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BELOW ZERO. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNDER A SUFFICIENT THERMAL AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUSTAIN WINDS AROUND 5 MPH THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LARGELY UNCHANGED THUS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION IS COPIED BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
TODAY'S WEATHER:
THE COLD AIR IS STARTING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING,
BUT EVEN WITH HOW COLD IT IS RIGHT NOW AND WILL BE THROUGH NOON
TODAY, THE WORST WILL BE YET TO COME THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
FOR NOW, TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW
AS -30 IN THE BORDERLANDS. THIS IS ABOUT ON TRACK WITH WHAT
WE'VE BEEN FORECASTING, AND ADDITIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY
UNDERACHIEVING WOULD BE DOWN TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES TO I-35
CORRIDOR WITH WIND CHILLS ONLY INTO THE TEENS RIGHT NOW, BUT
THERE TOO, IT SHOULD JUST KEEP GETTING COLDER. WE HAVE THEREFORE
RETAINED ALL EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
AS THEY HAVE PREVIOUSLY BEEN ISSUED.
WE ALSO HAVE SOME AREAS OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST. THIS
IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION, A WEAK SURFACE LOW, AND COUPLED LIFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL
REALLY USHER IN THE COLDEST OF THE COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH
THIS MORNING. WITH ALL THIS, WE MAY SEE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT
SNOW PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME AFTERNOON FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
PERSIST WITH LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THERE WON'T BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO EXPECT JUST
A DUSTING FOR SOME PLACES.
EXTREME COLD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING:
THE MAIN STORY THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEFINITELY BE THE QUICK
ARRIVAL OF EXTREME COLD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO
TIGHTEN UP AND WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WE SHOULD NOT SEE REALLY ANY TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY TODAY. TEMPERATURES MAY PLATEAU FOR A BIT THIS MORNING,
BUT EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TUMBLE LIKE A ROCK THIS AFTERNOON. WE
SHOULD SEE THE FIRST ARRIVAL OF -40 WIND CHILLS IN THE EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS GO
INTO EFFECT AT 2 PM FOR ALL MINNESOTA COUNTIES AND 6 PM FOR ALL
WISCONSIN COUNTIES.
FOR TONIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT CAN GET THAT WE
WILL SEE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW -40. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE OVER US THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, AND ALONG WITH THAT WILL BE A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT THAT WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AROUND 15-25 MPH
(TO 30 MPH ALONG THE NORTH SHORE). WE HAVE ANYWHERE FROM 40-80%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW -25 TONIGHT REGIONWIDE,
AND MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PERHAPS A FEW INTERIOR
PLACES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MAY FALL TO AROUND -30 (30-60%
CHANCE). ALL-IN-ALL, JUST A BRUTAL NIGHT OUT THERE, AND THE WIND
CHILLS OF -40 OR BELOW ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND WELL INTO
THE MORNING HOURS. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 2
PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NOON FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
EXTREME COLD FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY:
EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO IMPROVE A BIT FRIDAY AFTERNOON (THOUGH
ONLY RISING TO AROUND -25 TO -35 OR SO). WINDS REMAIN ON THE
BREEZY SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP PRETTY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. WE WILL STILL BE WITHIN THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR, BUT THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT
HOW COLD WIND CHILLS WILL ACTUALLY FALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND, WE MAY RETAIN SOME LIGHT WINDS, AND IT DOESN'T TAKE
MUCH WIND TO REALLY DROP WIND CHILLS. BUT ALSO POSSIBLE IS THAT
WINDS MAY BECOME NEARLY CALM. IN THAT CASE, WE WOULD STILL
EXPECT SOME VERY COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, IN FACT LIKELY
COLDER THAN WHAT WE'RE EXPECTING TONIGHT SINCE THIS WILL BE A
MUCH BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. I'VE KEPT LOWS AROUND NBM
25TH PERCENTILE, AS THIS SEEMS LIKE A REALISTIC MIDDLE-GROUND OF
THE WORST CASE SCENARIO (A TRUE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH
CALM WINDS, ALLOWING AIR TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE -40S IN
THE USUAL COLD SPOTS) TO A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION WHERE WE
COULD RETAIN SOME WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS. AT
THIS TIME, WE'RE HOVERING AROUND CRITERIA FOR EXTREME COLD
WARNING VERSUS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, SO FOR NOW, WE WILL RETAIN
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE EITHER AIR
TEMPERATURES OR WIND CHILLS FALL TO THAT -40 OR BELOW RANGE
WOULD BE PARTS OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES WHERE WINDS SHOULD
BE A BIT HIGHER AND POSSIBLY LOCAL INTERIOR AREAS IN NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER
BRUTALLY COLD NIGHT, BUT EXACTLY HOW COLD STILL REMAINS A BIT IN
QUESTION.
SOUTH SHORE LAKE-EFFECT SNOW:
WITH ALL THE COLD AIR IN PLACE AND NORTHWEST WINDS, WE CAN
EXPECT CONTINUOUS, BUT GENERALLY LIGHT LAKE-EFFECT CLOUDS AND
SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. WITH SUCH COLD AND DRY AIR, THERE
SHOULDN'T BE MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT ANY HEAVY LAKE-
EFFECT, BUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE USUAL LAKE-EFFECT HOT SPOTS
MAY PICK UP ~1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN TOTAL THROUGH AROUND FRIDAY
EVENING. AS WINDS SWITCH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT, LAKE-
EFFECT SHOULD END (EXCEPT MAYBE THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS).
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND:
WE'RE NOT GETTING RID OF THE COLD ANYTIME SOON. WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE LOOKING TO BE RATHER LIGHT,
SO WE WILL BE FLIRTING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR SOME PLACES AND PERHAPS SOME PLACES MAYBE NOT
REQUIRING HEADLINES AT ALL.
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BE SIMILARLY COLD AS SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT
PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE WINDY. SOME COLD HEADLINES CAN'T BE RULED
OUT.
WE MAY SEE SOME WEAK CLIPPER ACTIVITY BRINGING IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT GENERALLY WE'RE GOING TO REMAIN WITH A
COLD NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL KEEP US WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (THOUGH PERHAPS WARMING UP ENOUGH TO KEEP US OUT OF
HEADLINE-WORTHY COLD WEATHER).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AS EARLIER SNOW SHOWERS HAVE COME TO AN END. MVFR LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS AND SNOW CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
KHYR EXPECTED TO OCCASIONALLY SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ON FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON,
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WEAK
MOISTURE ARRIVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECT FRIGID TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST WINDS EASING ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THEY
BACK AND BECOME WESTERLY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 415 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT. WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY
EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE
SPEEDS AND GUSTS INCREASE MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALLER CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ140>148-150.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ142.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ145>147.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...HUYCK
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