101
FXUS63 KDLH 231743
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1143 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALL OF THE NORTHLAND.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATING TO AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. FLURRIES POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TODAY WITH ONLY A DUSTING
EXPECTED.
- WHILE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WARMING TREND STARTING LATE THIS
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH MINIMAL SNOW CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS REGIONS. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, AIR TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY AROUND THE -20S TO -30S. NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE REMAINED
ON THE BREEZY SIDE THIS MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS TIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR HUDSON BAY LINGERS
AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
WITH THESE NORTHWEST WINDS, WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING WILL RANGE FROM
THE -40S TO AS COLD AS -60 DEGREES. DUE TO THESE DANGEROUS
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE CWA THROUGH TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. HIGH
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY BE RISING INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS
WITH WIND CHILLS REMAINING IN THE -20S TO AROUND -30. FOR TONIGHT,
WINDS DO EASE SOMEWHAT AS THE LOW PRESSURE NEAR HUDSON BAY
PROPAGATES DOWNSTREAM AND HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT. WHILE
WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRUTAL COLD PERSISTS
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE -30S TO -40S.
IN ADDITION TO THE BRUTAL COLD, THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN ONGOING LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE LEE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OVERNIGHT. WITH THE ARCTIC AIR OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR,
DELTA-T BETWEEN THE LAKE SFC AND 850MB IS AN EXTREME 30-35 DEGC WITH
AN IMPRESSIVE 800-1000 J/KG OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE. WHILE THE
THERMODYNAMICS ARE EXCELLENT, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MUCH LESS
IMPRESSIVE AS TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW THE DGZ AND SNOW CHARACTER IS
EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATELY EXPECTED TO BE FINE COLUMNS AND SMALL
PLATES RATHER THAN HEAVILY ACCUMULATING, FLUFFY DENDRITES. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW IS VERY LIKELY (60+% CHANCE) TO CONTINUE ALONG MUCH OF
THE SOUTH SHORE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, NOTABLY AROUND THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA, WITH TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR'S SOUTH SHORE, SNOW CHANCES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL BE MINIMAL. AN INFLUX OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ARRIVING HIGH PRESSURE COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LIFT AROUND
THE 925-850MB LAYER LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON COULD TOUCH
OFF SOME FLURRIES, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRIGID AIRMASS WILL BE QUICK TO
SATURATE AND PRECIPITATE. CAMS SHOW MINIMAL SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY TODAY, WHICH DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT
OF POTENTIAL HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THEREFORE, THE
FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING KEPT THE AREA THAT COULD SEE
FLURRIES FAIRLY BROAD. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT FLURRIES TODAY
WILL BE HIT OR MISS WITH ACCUMULATIONS ONLY AROUND A DUSTING.
STARTING SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TAKING A WARMING TREND,
WHICH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WON'T BE QUITE AS DANGEROUS AS TODAY AND TOMORROW, IT WILL STILL BE
ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TUESDAY MORNING, THERE IS ALSO VERY HIGH
80+% CONFIDENCE THAT EVERY SINGLE LOW TEMP IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE SUB-ZERO. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED,
PARTICULARLY ON MONDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS ONCE AGAIN DROP IN THE
-20S TO AROUND -40 DEGREES. WEAK CLIPPERS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK,
BUT THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON
WAS KEEPING CLOUDS AT BAY FOR NOW. WE STILL THINK CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. KEPT THE PROB30S WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE FORECAST
WHILE PUSHING THE START TIME BACK A FEW HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TODAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT, WITH A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING
ALSO PERSISTING IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. WINDS AND
WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BACKING WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE SPEEDS AND
GUSTS INCREASE ON MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALLER CRAFT DUE TO THESE INCREASED WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
BUILDING WAVES ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>148-150.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ142.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...UNRUH
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