602
FXUS63 KDLH 232324
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
524 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING. EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR TONIGHT. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACCUMULATING TO AN INCH OR LESS EACH
DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND A LITTLE WARMER SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING COLD PERSISTS OVER THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIN STRATUS DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHLAND TODAY WITH ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES. EXPECT THE FLURRIES
AND CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
"HEATING". ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SAG
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THE COLDEST AIR
ALOFT MOVED OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED. LEANED ON
A COMBINATION OF THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE AND CONSMOS MIN TEMPS
TONIGHT. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM CONTINUES TO RESIDE 2 TO 7
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE 50TH PERCENTILE. THIS MORNING'S LOWS
WERE NEAR THE NBM 50TH PERCENTILE FORECAST FROM 13Z THURSDAY SO
I HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THE TREND WILL PERSIST TONIGHT.
THAT COMBINATION YIELDS LOWS FROM AROUND -20 ON THE SOUTH SHORE
OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO NEAR -40 IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DUE TO
THE EXPECTED LOWER WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS WON'T BE AS
EYE-POPPINGLY COLD OVERNIGHT. READINGS WHERE WINDS ARE 3 MPH OR
STRONGER WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND -50 TO -35 DEGREES. ELSEWHERE
AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT RISK TO ANYONE
OUTDOORS.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE ENTIRE
NORTHLAND REMAINS BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS SATURDAY, WIND CHILLS
WILL BECOME LESS OF A HAZARD FOR A TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CURRENT EXTREME COLD WARNING IS SET TO EXPIRE AT NOON. WE ISSUED
A NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND FROM 6 PM
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL NOON SUNDAY. CONTINUED WITH A BLEND OF NBM
50TH PERCENTILE AND CONSMOS FOR LOW TEMPS BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AIR TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE -32 TO -20
DEGREE RANGE SUNDAY MORNING. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS OF -45 TO -25
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. THE AREAS AFFECTED BY WARNING-LEVEL WIND
CHILLS IS LESS EXTENSIVE THAN TONIGHT. EVEN SO LATER SHIFTS MAY
NEED TO UPGRADE NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
TEMPERATURE CLIMB ABOVE ZERO FOR A FEW HOURS IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE NORTHLAND STAYS BELOW ZERO. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY ALTHOUGH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT WIND
CHILLS. ANOTHER NIGHT OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR LATE JANUARY. A WEAK CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY MAY BRING A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW.
ANOTHER WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. A FEW MODELS INDICATE SNOW CHANCES NEARBY THOUGH
ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LESS THAN 3 INCHES. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THAT TIME PERIOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE LATEST CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK REVEALS A
SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK
OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW WHEREVER THERE IS CLOUD COVER, BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
ARCTIC COLD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL ENABLE DEEPER MIXING
OVER THE WATERS THAN THE LAND. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. WESTERLY WINDS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN. GUSTS AND WAVES MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR THE WATERS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE AND FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>148-150.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ142.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...HUYCK
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