610
FXUS63 KDLH 242349
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP BACK TO 30 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT.
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE LIKELY FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY, WITH TOTALS UNDER AN
INCH. A LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL PIVOT TO THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA
ON SUNDAY FOR MORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND TODAY. WHILE WE ARE SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS
AFTERNOON, IT IS DOING LITTLE TO HELP THE MERCURY, WITH HIGHS
STUCK BETWEEN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. DID NOTICE THAT A
LARGE SHEET OF ICE FORMED AT THE FAR END OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW BROKE THAT OFF AND
SEND IT EASTWARD - A COOL SATELLITE LOOP IF YOU HAVE A SECOND TO
CHECK IT OUT.
TONIGHT, AIR TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET,
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, IT TAKES VERY LITTLE
AIR MOVEMENT TO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THESE
TEMPERATURES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO. EXPOSED SKIN CAN SUFFER FROSTBITE IN AS
LITTLE AS 30 MINUTES UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. ONE POTENTIAL
SAVING GRACE THAT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
THEY COULD BE IS A THIN VEIL OF CLOUD COVER. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CLOUDS SHOULD BE PRESENT HITTING THE FROST POINT, BUT THAT IS
ONLY TRUE IF THIS PRISTINE AIR MASS HAS ICE NUCLEI IN IT. THE
GOES DAY CLOUD PHASE RGB SUGGESTS THAT THAT IS THE CASE, SO KEPT
TEMPS MORE TOWARDS THE 50TH PERCENTILE TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL BE COMMON TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
BRINGING A 20 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A DUSTING TO LESS THAN AN INCH.
LAKE EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND EVENTUALLY THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA, SUNDAY POTENTIALLY
BRINGING LOCALIZED LIGHT TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK, A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL FINALLY CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY MONDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE WE ARE TURNING THE
CORNER ON THE MOST EXTREME COLD, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY EARLY FEBRUARY.
NO LARGE SYSTEMS IN SIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT FORECAST TERMINALS THIS EVENING, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND THICKENING MID LEVEL
CLOUDS. KBRD WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 07Z, FALLING TO
AROUND 1800FT, BEFORE INCREASING AFTER 15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW FLURRIES FALLING WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES, BUT DO NOT EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS AT FORECAST TERMINALS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 225 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REMAIN RELATIVELY CALM FOR
SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 15
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED WITH WAVES 2 FEET OR LESS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS A CONCERN GIVEN THE EXTREME COLD. THE NEXT PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARRIVES MONDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...WOLFE
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