089
FXUS63 KDLH 251722
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY COLD STRETCH CONTINUES INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTHLAND THROUGH NOON
MONDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU END OF JANUARY THEN NEAR NORMAL
TO START FEBRUARY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THE NORTHLAND REMAINS FIRMLY UNDER THE PERSISTENT ARCTIC AIR
THIS MORNING AS AIR TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO
AND POCKETS OF WIND CHILLS DOWN TO 40 BELOW ZERO. THIS KEEPS THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE.
FLURRIES HAVE ALREADY BEGUN THIS MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND DOWN IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD FURTHER EAST TOWARDS DAYLIGHT TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE IRON RANGE IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE STATELINE AREA
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE FLURRIES ARE FORECAST TO END THIS
AFTERNOON, DROPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION, IF A DUSTING IS ABLE TO FORM THEN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE THAT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO, WITH MOST
OF THE REGION REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
WHILE THERE WILL BE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE ABSOLUTE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS AND TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
NIGHT OF EXTREME COLD WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THIS REASON, THE ONGOING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED
IN TIME FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND UNTIL NOON MONDAY. FORECAST AIR
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL PLUMMET BETWEEN 15 AND 25 BELOW ZERO.
WHILE THE CURRENT HEADLINE ERRS ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION REGARDING
TIMING OF WHEN THE WIND CHILLS TOMORROW MORNING WILL IMPROVE,
THE FORECAST DOES FAVOR A BIT EARLIER IMPROVEMENT BY LATE
MONDAY MORNING THAN THE NOON HOUR.
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING A ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE UPPED BASELINE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM; DESPITE LOW MOISTURE LEVELS AND LIQUID
EQUIVALENTS OF ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS, THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD FOR THIS WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATION TO OCCUR. THE
LOWEST CHANCES FOR SEEING ANYTHING BEYOND A DUSTING WITH THIS
MONDAY CLIPPER ARE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. WITH THE CLIPPER
PASSAGE, SHORELINE LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY HAVE A 50
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH FROM
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
THESE STRONGEST WINDS WILL DEPART QUICKLY MONDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT
TO NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME A WIND ADVISORY
DOES NOT APPEAR NEEDED GIVEN THE CORE OF THOSE STRONGEST
SOUTHWESTERLIES REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR MONDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES FINALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE REGION WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF JANUARY. A TREND TOWARD MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED BY VERY EARLY FEBRUARY. NO LARGE OR
HIGH-IMPACT STORM SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT WEEK BEYOND THE ONGOING VERY COLD CONDITIONS AND THE MONDAY
LIGHT CLIPPER SNOW. LOCALIZED MID TO LATE WEEK CHANCES OF
SNOWFALL MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SOUTH SHORE IN TIME IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAKING IT INTO THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SNOWBELTS. THE OTHER VERY LIMITED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO WATCH WOULD BE A CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND POSSIBLY (20-30% CHANCE) BRINGING SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO SOMEWHERE IN THE ND/MN/NORTHERN WI REGION SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SOUTH
SHORE. HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO ROLL IN TOMORROW MORNING AND
AFTERNOON OUT AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 212 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS PROMPTED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THE NORTH SHORE TONIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF A CLIPPER, WITH A GALE WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR THE FAR NORTHEASTERN NEARSHORE WATERS FOR GUSTS UP TO 35
KNOTS. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 6 FEET IN THE NORTHEASTERN
SECTORS BY MONDAY EVENING. A PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY IS POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND BETWEEN GRAND
MARAIS AND GRAND PORTAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT FROM GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
LOOK LIKELY EVEN INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
006>009.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR LSZ140>143.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ140.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...NLY
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