179
FXUS63 KDLH 262014
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
214 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING A
DUSTING OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION.
- ABOVE ZERO TEMPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. WE WARM BACK TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TONIGHT:
A VERY LACK LUSTER CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING IN FROM THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS RATHER WEAK SITTING AT 1001MB AS
IT MOVES INTO WESTERN ONTARIO. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALSO KEEPS THE
LOW ON THE WEAK SIDE AS IT MOVES TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. THE
BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING IS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH A
CORRIDOR OF PVA SLIDING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER, THIS FORCING
IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH A LARGE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH IS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL
GENERATION. SATELLITE AND WEBCAMS SHOW SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT ROADWAYS LOOK TO ONLY BE PARTIALLY
COVERED WITH SNOW AT THE MOMENT SO SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT VERY
IMPRESSIVE. BEHIND THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WE CAN FIND SOME BETTER
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PAIRED WITH SOME STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO HCRS WHICH CAN ALREADY BE SEEN IN
FAR WESTERN MN. EXPECT THESE HCRS TO STREAM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD OCCASIONALLY LEADING TO LOCALIZED BURSTS OF
SNOW. IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FOR SNOW TOTALS. LARGELY EXPECTING THE REGION TO
STAY UNDER HALF AN INCH.
TUESDAY- FRIDAY:
COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE EXITING CLIPPER SYSTEM THROUGH
THE WEEK BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS WE HAD TO ENDURE LATE LAST WEEK
AND THIS PAST WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS AS OPPOSE TO THIRTY OR FORTY BELOW. OUR HIGHS WILL ALSO MANAGE
TO CLIMB INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
PREDOMINATELY SOME FLAVOR OF NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD LEADING TO OFF AND ON SNOW SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE SOUTH
SHORE. ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUCH A LONG PERIOD WILL BE MINIMAL.
WEEKEND:
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND WE FINALLY TAKE SOME STRIDES TOWARDS OUR
TEMPERATURES REACHING THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. HIGHS SOAR INTO
THE 20S WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. ENSEMBLES HAVE GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST FOR
SATURDAY LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTHLAND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND MAY
ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF PRECIPITATION. STILL A LOT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME SO POPS REMAIN AROUND 20% FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SNOW COVERAGE
DOWNWARD, AND HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS IN TAFS, WITH VCSH
NOTED AT MOST TERMINALS. WHERE IT DOES SNOW, THERE COULD BE
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY TO BELOW 2 MILES. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
22-25KTS. AS THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING, WINDS TURN TO THE
WEST, WITH A FEW HOURS OF CIGS AROUND 3KFT. WINDS TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, REMAINING GUSTY, WITH CIGS IMPROVING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 208 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE RAMPING UP THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO GALES THE NORTH SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE, AND THE
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS
LIKELY FOR SOME PLACES AS THESE STRONG WINDS INTERACT WITH THE
FRIGID AIR MASS AND OPEN WATER. WINDS SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT, MAINTAINING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. OF NOTE, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF ICE BUILT UP ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE AT THIS TIME. ESPECIALLY FROM SAND BAY TO BAYFIELD,
THICK ICE COVER, AS OBSERVED BY SATELLITE, MAY NOT WARRANT A NEED
FOR ANY HEADLINES. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED
FOR THAT AREA AT THIS TIME DESPITE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
LSZ140>143-146.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ141>146-
148.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BRITT/JDS
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