214
FXUS63 KDLH 280816
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
216 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODIC LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE SOUTH SHORE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NORTHLAND UNTIL A CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW FOR
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TODAY - FRIDAY NIGHT:
WE REMAIN COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, ALBEIT LESS
COLD THAN OUR RECENT ARCTIC COLD SPELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TODAY AND THURSDAY
AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO NEAR 10F ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS FOR THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN EACH NIGHT/MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MAY EVEN DIP INTO THE LOW 20S BELOW ZERO
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 20 MPH FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING/TODAY AND EVEN
LIGHTER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND COLD ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
EACH NIGHT/MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE TEENS TO 20S
BELOW ZERO. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF -30F TO -35F IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING, BUT
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS OF COLDER THAN -30F ARE NOT EXPECTED, SO
HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ANY COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME. IF TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS DROP FARTHER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, SOME TARGETED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW COUNTIES.
SNOW CHANCES REMAIN LOW TO NIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES (10-20% CHANCE)
TONIGHT INTO DAYTIME THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY INTERACTING WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL SATURATION WITHIN A FEW
THOUSAND FEET OF THE GROUND. EXPECT NO ACCUMULATIONS TO A LIGHT
DUSTING AT BEST. A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY
THIS MORNING WILL THEN DIVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH (PWATS ONLY ~0.10 INCHES). CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH AS MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW MOST OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE BEING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE ON FRIDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW (>=0.1") ARE ONLY
ABOUT 10% OR LESS. OUTSIDE OF THESE VERY LOW-END SNOW CHANCES,
THE ONLY ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE PERIODIC LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE IN NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY
WINDS. GIVEN ICE BUILD UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE AND A DRY
AIRMASS, SNOW RATES WITH ANY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE LIGHT. TOTAL
FORECAST ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 1-3" BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY
NIGHT, MOST OF WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY AS THE TONIGHT-THURSDAY SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
EVEN THEN, HOURLY SNOW RATES WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT, PEAKING AT
~0.1-0.2" PER HOUR.
THIS WEEKEND - NEXT WEEK:
THE CENTER OF STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA AND THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA
DAYTIME FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY, KEEPING APPRECIABLE
SNOW CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFF TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING A WEAK ALBERTA
CLIPPER TO MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SNOW HAVE INCREASED WITH THIS SYSTEM (40-70%), BUT
AGAIN GENERALLY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 1" OR
MORE OF SNOW FOR THAT TIMEFRAME HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY UPWARDS,
BUT ARE STILL ONLY 20-40%, WITH PROBABILITIES OF 2" OR MORE OF
SNOW REMAINING LESS THAN 20%. ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS WE
REMAIN IN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE TEENS TO NEAR
20F ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY, AND THEN SETTLE INTO A PERIOD OF
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WARMING EVEN A COUPLE MORE DEGREES BY MID-NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA UNTIL THIS MORNING. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR AN MVFR
STRATUS DECK MOVING INTO INL/THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS OF 06Z
THAT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. HAVE
INTRODUCE BKN MVFR CEILINGS TO INL, HIB STARTING AT 08Z, DLH AT
11Z, AND HYR AT 16Z TO TRY AND TIME OUT THE SOUTHERN EXPANSION
OF THE MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR THE
CLOUD DECK MOVES AND HOW DENSE THE COVERAGE WILL BE, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
BKN FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY FOR MOST TERMINALS. WE THEN HAVE
CLOUDS GOING SCATTERED STARTING THIS EVENING, BUT THERE IS STILL
A 30-40% CHANCE THAT MVFR CEILINGS COULD HANG AROUND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND
PORTAGE UNTIL EARLY THIS MORNING, BEFORE WEAKENING BELOW 20 KT
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY BECOME NORTHERLY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, REMAINING
GENERALLY 20 KTS OR LESS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20-25 KT AND WAVES OF 3-5 FT FOR THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT. NORTHEAST TO
NORTH WINDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY REMAIN AT OR UNDER 20 KTS,
THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN LIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140-141.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR LSZ150.
DISCUSSION...ROTHSTEIN
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN
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