182
FXUS63 KDLH 050541
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING TWO ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT IN TO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE COULD LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR THE THURSDAY MORNING
COMMUTE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH
HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- AFTER QUIET WEATHER ON FRIDAY, AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CLIPPERS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND WINTRY MIX. TEMPS ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN FAIRLY BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHLAND. WEAK LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH LOW STRATUS AND FAVORABLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE LED TO SPORADIC FLURRIES, WHICH ARE BEGINNING TO
EASE. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE FORECAST IS A SURGE OF WARM AIR TONIGHT
LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND THE
IMPLICATIONS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS WILL HAVE AS A CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH. RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT, USHERING IN WAA INTO THE CWA AS A
TROUGH DESCENDS SOUTH FROM MANITOBA. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP
DEVELOPS TONIGHT ALONG THE WARM FRONT, WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE
BEGINNING AS SNOW AS TEMPS STAY IN THE TEENS. SNOW AMOUNTS TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO 3", WITH
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE
DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE.
PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES MUCH MORE MESSY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS
FREEZING DRIZZLE BECOMES A CONCERN. HI-RES MODELS, BOTH SOUNDINGS
AND PLAN VIEWS, SHOW SATURATION WITHIN THE 925-850MB LAYER ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND A LOSS OF ICE ALOFT AS DRY AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
IN THE 850-500MB LAYER. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING ACROSS
A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA WILL BRING A 30% CHANCE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING DRIZZLE. FREEZING DRIZZLE
POTENTIAL DIMINISHES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM ABOVE
FREEZING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT
DIMINISHES. OVERALL, THIS COULD LEAD TO A GLAZE OF ICE FOR THE
THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE ON TOP OF LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS.
A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER
ARRIVES THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE CWA. PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SECOND ROUND
WILL BE EQUALLY MESSY AS LOW-LEVEL SATURATION ONCE AGAIN OCCURS WITH
A LOSS OF ICE ALOFT. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WARM NOSE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
THAT COULD FURTHER LEAD TO POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS.
IT'S WORTH NOTING AT THIS POINT THOUGH THAT THE INTRUSION OF A
WARM NOSE IS STILL UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE SPATIAL VARIATIONS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE. IN TERMS OF IMPACTS ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY
BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WI WITH AMOUNTS AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3" ARE EXPECTED IN THE
SNOW BELT OF IRON AND EASTERN ASHLAND COUNTIES AS LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OCCURS FROM NORTHWEST WINDS.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LATE WEEK CLIPPER, CLOUD COVER WILL
DECREASE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH WITH A STRONG
BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. ADDITIONAL DAYS
WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT AS A BAND OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. EXPECT
CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 18Z TODAY BEFORE MAYBE
BECOMING MORE PREVAILING MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS. ENSEMBLE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE POINTS TO A 3-5 HOUR PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AROUND IFR AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY. HAVE ACCOUNTED
FOR THIS POSSIBLE VERY LOW STRATUS / MIST / DRIZZLE...FORECAST
SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE LOW STRATUS REGIME WITH PERIODS OF
MIST/DRIZZLE OF OVER FOG...WITH A FEW TEMPOS AT TERMINALS.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT QUICKLY SHIFT WESTERLY BEHIND THE
PASSING WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AFTER DAYBREAK AND LAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH WAVES UNDER 1 FOOT.
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO 15-25 KNOTS AHEAD OF A
CLIPPER WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH SHORE
FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE AND FROM PORT WING TO THE
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 20-
25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141-
146-150.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...UNRUH
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