171
FXUS63 KDLH 051148
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
548 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A
GLAZE ALONG AND SOUTH OF MN HWY 200. SNOW TONIGHT REMAINS
LIGHT WITH 1 AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE, UP TO 3 INCHES FOR
NORTHERN IRON COUNTY SNOWBELT.
- WARM TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 30S LEADING TO SOME MELTING. A REFREEZE OF MELT TODAY IS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A TEMPERATURES DECREASE
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.
- BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY, GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES ALSO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
- QUICK COOL DOWN BACK BELOW ZERO FRIDAY NIGHT, ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SUNDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CENTERED OVER THE REGION OF ONTARIO
NORTH OF SUPERIOR IS CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOWFALL IN THE
ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH MIDDAY WILL GENERALLY BE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH THIS
MORNING, THOUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD COULD SEE UP TO 3
INCHES WHERE THE LIFT IS STRONGEST.
AS DRY AIR MOVES IN ALOFT LATER THIS MORNING, WE LOSE THE ICE
CRYSTALS NEEDED FOR SNOW, WHICH INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. HIGH RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS CONCERNS FOR
FOG LASTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE ARROWHEAD, MODERATE
CONFIDENCE, AND INLAND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN, LOWER
CONFIDENCE. A MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FOG REMAINS IN THE
WEATHER FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
WARM AIR IS ADVECTING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
THURSDAY MORNING ON SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR EVEN RISING THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TODAY, EVENTUALLY PEAKING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. WHILE THE WARMTH IS A BREAK FROM THE
RECENT ARCTIC AIR, IT BRINGS A COMPLICATED MIX OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
A SECOND WAVE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THIS SECOND ROUND
LOOKS EVEN MORE MESSY, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX AND
EVEN SOME FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF MN HWY 200
WHERE A LAYER OF WARMER AIR MAY LINGER ALOFT. AS THE WINDS TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
RAMP UP FOR THE SNOW BELTS OF IRON AND EASTERN ASHLAND COUNTIES,
ADDING ANOTHER FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THERE. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 35
MPH AREAWIDE FRIDAY PRE-DAWN THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME GUSTS
ON THE FAR NORTH SHORE COASTAL AREAS MAY REACH 45 MPH THOUGH
FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM.
ONCE THE SYSTEM CLEARS OUT ON FRIDAY DAYTIME, THE WARM WEATHER
COMES TO AN ABRUPT END. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
USHER IN A FRESH COOL AIRMASS, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
TO AID IN TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS BELOW ZERO. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THEN QUICKLY
WARM AGAIN SUNDAY AND LAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
PATTERN OF CLIPPERS PRODUCING PERIODIC AND REGIONALLY-LIMITED
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALSO LASTS INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TRANSLATES
TO OFF-AND-ON WINTRY MIX PRECIP CHANCES FROM 10-30 PERCENT
MULTIPLE TIMES SATURDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A CLIPPER IS EXITING THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND PRODUCING
THE LAST HOUR OR SO OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA PRESENTLY. A FEW AREAS OF
IFR VISIBILITY REMAIN OBSERVED THOUGH FROM MIST/VERY LOW STRATUS
TRAILING THE LIGHT SNOWFALL. EXPECT CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS THROUGH 17-21Z TODAY BEFORE MAYBE BECOMING MORE
PREVAILING MVFR AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING CLIPPER TONIGHT.
AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE
FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE FORECAST LASTING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH. THAT SECOND CLIPPER TONIGHT SETS UP FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST 00Z TO 05Z THURS AND BRINGS A 3-6 HOUR WINDOW OF
ANOTHER LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. A GLAZE OF ICE MAY FORM ON
UNTREATED SURFACES TONIGHT FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE MAINLY FOR
TERMINALS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DULUTH TO GRAND RAPIDS, WHICH
INCLUDES THE KBRD BRAINERD TERMINAL. NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
RIGHT BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND GUST TO 30 KNOTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 145 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD
OF THE CLIPPER, CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM TODAY FOR THE NORTH
SHORE FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE AND FOR THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS ARE MOST POSSIBLE NEAR
GRAND MARAIS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THESE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE IN SPEED FRIDAY EVENING. ANOTHER MORE WIDESPREAD TIME
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED IN TIME FOR THE
WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-
141-146-150.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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