127
FXUS63 KDLH 052118
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MESSY WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT, COMING TO AN END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL BE 2 INCHES OR LESS FOR MOST, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 3" IN THE SNOW BELTS OF IRON AND
EASTERN ASHLAND COUNTIES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A GLAZE UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
- QUICK COOL DOWN BACK BELOW ZERO ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SUNDAY ONWARD.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE, CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MUCH QUIETER AS A
WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ARE EXPECTED TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MID 30S. IN
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS THE WARM FRONT WON'T BE PASSING
THROUGH UNTIL AFTER PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. THIS
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MESSY VARIETY OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE,
ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO INITIALLY CAUSE A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
IN ADDITION, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS WARM AIR ALOFT
OCCURS FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY WITH SUB-
FREEZING SFC TEMPS. EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS CAA OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT FROM A TRACE TO 2". LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
AROUND 3" ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNOW BELTS OF IRON COUNTY AND EASTERN
ASHLAND COUNTY AS SLIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS WITH THE
NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL DELTA-TS
BETWEEN 850MB AND THE SFC OF AROUND 14-16 DEGC AND THE INCREASED
ICE COVER WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT. IN TERMS OF
ICE ACCUMULATIONS, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH OF ICE WILL BE PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES WITH A GLAZE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LATE WEEK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY MORNING,
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ADDITIONAL
CLIPPERS POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH WITH A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE
REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TRANSLATES TO OFF-AND-ON
WINTRY MIX PRECIP CHANCES FROM 20-40 PERCENT MULTIPLE TIMES SATURDAY
ONWARD.
ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH MUCH OF THE CWA SEEING
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WHILE HIGH TEMPS DO COOL BACK BELOW
FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THIS WARMER THAN
AVERAGE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN MID-FEBRAURY AS THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 70-80% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. FOR CONTEXT, NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-FEBRAURY
ARE HIGHS AROUND THE MID 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
LIFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR A LARGE
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH PATCHY FOG. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN AS SKIES SCATTER. AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING CLIPPER SWEEPS SOUTH THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT A WIDESPREAD REDUCTION TO IFR AND LIFR
AS LIGHT SNOW MOVES THROUGH. FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP, MAINLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA
WHERE DRY AIR ALOFT IS MOST LIKELY. CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AFTER A BREEZY START THIS MORNING, QUIETER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
LULL IN WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS OF
10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE 5 AM TO 10 AM TIMEFRAME ON FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS A LOW 20% CHANCE. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>142-146-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ143>145.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...UNRUH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page