708
FXUS63 KDLH 052350
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
550 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MESSY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PRECIP TAPERS OFF
TO FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS BEFORE SUNRISE WHILE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LINGERS OVER PORTIONS OF NW WI UNTIL LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
- TOTAL SNOWFALL LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITH A FEW
POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES TO POSSIBLY AROUND 3" IN THE SNOW BELTS
OF IRON, NORTHERN BAYFIELD, AND EASTERN ASHLAND COUNTIES. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A GLAZE UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.
- QUICK COOL DOWN BACK BELOW ZERO ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY SUNDAY ONWARD.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AFTER A CLOUDY START TO THE DAY WITH PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE, CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN MUCH QUIETER
AS A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
AROUND THE MID 30S. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, HIGH TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AS
THE WARM FRONT WON'T BE PASSING THROUGH UNTIL AFTER PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING.
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM IS A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION THAT WILL BE ARRIVING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT AND MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE CWA.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A MESSY VARIETY
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES. WHILE SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE, ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS ARE LIKELY TO INITIALLY CAUSE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. IN ADDITION, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS
WARM AIR ALOFT OCCURS FROM THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY WITH SUB- FREEZING SFC TEMPS. EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO
TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
CAA OCCURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE LIGHT FROM A TRACE TO 2". LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND 3" ARE EXPECTED IN THE SNOW BELTS OF IRON COUNTY
AND EASTERN ASHLAND COUNTY AS SLIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS
WITH THE NORTH- NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL
DELTA-TS BETWEEN 850MB AND THE SFC OF AROUND 14-16 DEGC AND THE
INCREASED ICE COVER WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT. IN
TERMS OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS, THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE WILL BE PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES
WITH A GLAZE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF THIS LATE WEEK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY
MORNING, CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY. WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS ADDITIONAL CLIPPERS POTENTIALLY MOVE THROUGH WITH A
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS
TRANSLATES TO OFF-AND-ON WINTRY MIX PRECIP CHANCES FROM 20-40
PERCENT MULTIPLE TIMES SATURDAY ONWARD.
ADDITIONAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH MUCH OF THE CWA
SEEING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WHILE HIGH TEMPS DO COOL
BACK BELOW FREEZING ON WEDNESDAY, IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THIS
WARMER THAN AVERAGE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IN MID-
FEBRUARY AS THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 70-80% CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FOR CONTEXT, NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MID-FEBRAURY ARE HIGHS AROUND THE MID 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A SURPRISING AREA OF VFR CEILINGS WAS OVER NE MN AND NW WI
EARLY THIS EVENING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW
AND FREEZING DRIZZLE OR FREEZING RAIN MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION FROM SE MB AND NW ON. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
CEILINGS MAY NOT DROP INTO IFR AND UPSTREAM OBS AT CYQK
(KENORA, ON) SEEM TO SUPPORT THAT CONCEPT FOR THE MOMENT. IFR
VISIBILITY IN SNOW REMAINS LIKELY. THERE MAY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1 MILE. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAICS REVEALED A
"SHOWERY" APPEARANCE TO THE PRECIPITATION NEAR THE NORTHWEST
ANGLE AND MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS. WILL MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
VEER WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO SCATTER OUT FRIDAY
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AFTER A BREEZY START THIS MORNING, QUIETER CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
LULL IN WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
INCREASING LATE TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS OF
10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT STARTING LATE TONIGHT. BRIEF GALES MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE 5 AM TO 10 AM TIMEFRAME ON FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE FROM SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE. HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES IS A LOW 20% CHANCE. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE BY
FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ140>142-146-148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
LSZ143>145.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...UNRUH
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