073
FXUS63 KDLH 062340
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS 25
DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FOR MOST AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW MAY FALL IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SEEING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEY
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS LIKE THE IRON RANGE AND THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD,
WHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS
FORECAST IS AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THAT, WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO GET COLD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES AS VERY LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS MINIMAL.
THE COLD SNAP TONIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WARMING TREND
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY AFTER HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE WEST. WE WILL GET INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME, ALLOWING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE ARROWHEAD
POTENTIALLY SEEING ONE TO TWO INCHES. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS ALONG ROUGHLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR LOSS OF ICE
(FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES). THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON
UNTREATED SURFACES SATURDAY EVENING. ALL-IN-ALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A
LOW-IMPACT SYSTEM, AND IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER
WEST AND WOULD PROBABLY POSE THE BIGGER (THOUGH STILL MINOR)
IMPACT VERSUS SNOW IF IT HAPPENS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE
REGION WILL ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
ACTIVE. ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 30S OR POSSIBLY EVEN LOW 40S, LEADING TO A BIT OF A MID-
WINTER THAW. A WAVY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN MAY KEEP THE CLIPPERS
COMING NEXT WEEK AT TIMES, BUT MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE LOOKING
UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT WILL CREATE A
SMALL CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS CONDITIONS VFR. GLAMP
VISIBILITIES INTRODUCE A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF IFR OR LIFR
VISIBILITY AT HIB, INL, AND HYR. THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME SEEMS
TO BE DIRECT DEPOSITION ONTO THE EXISTING SNOWPACK RATHER THAN
FOG DEVELOPMENT. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW ALREADY AND UPSTREAM
DRY AIR WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING VISIBILITIES VFR. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THIS
EVENING IN CASE OF INCREASED PROBABILITY OF LOWER VISIBILITY
VALUES. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE OF VFR FLURRIES AT INL AND
HIB BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z AS A WEAK BAND OF ASCENT OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA SLIDES SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AFTER
08.00Z FORECAST GUIDANCE IS MIXED REGARDING A WEAK CLIPPER
PASSING OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 08.00Z AND 08.12Z. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND PRECIPITATION ARE NORTHEAST OF
THE TERMINALS AND INCLUDE KELO, KCKC, KTWM, KASX, AND KPBH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CREATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-
141-148-150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...JDS/HUYCK
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