267
FXUS63 KDLH 070619
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AS LOW AS 25
DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
- A QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER ARRIVES SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING A
LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW FOR MOST AREA AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A
THIN GLAZE OF ICE FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. UP TO AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW MAY FALL IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
THE NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY SEEING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON
AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN GUSTY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THEY
WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICALLY
COLDER SPOTS LIKE THE IRON RANGE AND THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD,
WHERE LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 AND 25 BELOW ZERO. THIS
FORECAST IS AROUND THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE FOR THE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT
EXPECTED. EVEN WITH THAT, WE ARE STILL NOT EXPECTED TO GET COLD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES AS VERY LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS SHOULD KEEP WIND CHILLS MINIMAL.
THE COLD SNAP TONIGHT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A WARMING TREND
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD ON SATURDAY AFTER HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO
THE WEST. WE WILL GET INTO A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME, ALLOWING SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER QUICKLY INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, WITH THE ARROWHEAD
POTENTIALLY SEEING ONE TO TWO INCHES. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX IN WITH THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS ALONG ROUGHLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND ALSO DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR LOSS OF ICE
(FAVORING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN
AT TIMES). THIS COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON
UNTREATED SURFACES SATURDAY EVENING. ALL-IN-ALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A
LOW-IMPACT SYSTEM, AND IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
THE MAIN AXIS OF FRONTOGENETICAL PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FURTHER
TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE, WHICH WOULD BE MORE LIKELY FURTHER
WEST AND WOULD PROBABLY POSE THE BIGGER (THOUGH STILL MINOR)
IMPACT VERSUS SNOW IF IT HAPPENS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO SUNDAY AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE
REGION WILL ENTER A MUCH MILDER PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. HOWEVER, THIS TRANSITION REMAINS
ACTIVE. ANOTHER QUICK-HITTING CLIPPER ON SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW, PERHAPS MIXED WITH LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 30S OR POSSIBLY EVEN LOW 40S, LEADING TO A BIT OF A MID-
WINTER THAW. A WAVY WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN MAY KEEP THE CLIPPERS
COMING NEXT WEEK AT TIMES, BUT MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE LOOKING
UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
GENERALLY KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (<20%)
FOR FOG PRODUCING IFR VISIBILITY VALUES OR LOWER, MAINLY AT
KHYR 10Z-15Z THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW
ALREADY AND UPSTREAM DRY AIR WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO KEEPING VISIBILITIES VFR. AFTER
08.00Z A WEAK CLIPPER PASSES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AROUND 08.00Z AND 08.12Z. CEILINGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO VFR WITH SHORT PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH SNOW AND/OR FREEZING DRIZZLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE PORTIONS OF THE
NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CREATE CHOPPY
CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND THE APOSTLE
ISLANDS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140-141-148-150.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...JDS/HUYCK
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