665
FXUS63 KDLH 072322
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
522 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND AREAS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/US53. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S MOST DAYS. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM HUDSON BAY INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN ELONGATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE ANALYZED ALONG IT. RADAR WAS SHOWING RETURNS OVER
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN, BUT WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER 10 DEGREES, MOST OF THIS WAS VIRGA. A
FEW SNOWFLAKES WERE REACHING THE GROUND IN SPOTS, HOWEVER, WITH
SPORADIC REPORTS OF -SN. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW. MODELS HAVE
COME IN DRIER AND FURTHER EAST WITH THIS FEATURE WITH CAMS
BASICALLY DRY. HAVE PULLED BACK POPS WITH THIS UPDATE AND
LOWERED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW EXPECTED. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DON'T SHOW MUCH SUPPORT
FOR THIS EITHER. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35/US53, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES IN THE ARROWHEAD.
FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL SET UP A WARM FRONT
ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC, BUT
SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW/MIX
SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH UPSLOPE FLOW.
ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK BEFORE
BREAKING DOWN LATE WEEK AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
RESULTING IN HIGHS RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL REACH INTO
THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH SOME 20S IN NORTHERN AREAS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEHIND A STRONGER CLIPPER PASSING TO THE
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO KEEP DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING WITH
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS OVER THE
RED RIVER VALLEY SHOW AN MVFR STRATUS DECK SLOWLY MOVING EAST. MOST
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE THIS CLOUD DECK BREACHING OUR
TERMINALS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, TRACKING THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUDS SHOW A MUCH EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME. THIS SET OF
TAFS HAS LEANED INTO THE EARLIER ARRIVAL TIME BASED OFF OF THE
CURRENT SPEED OF THE CLOUD DECK. ONCE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE WE MAY SEE A
FEW FLURRIES AT TIMES WITH WINDS TURNING TO OUT OF THE SOUTH
TOMORROW.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MARINE CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY THEN
SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY. SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A CLIPPER PASSING TO THE NORTH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EAST OF GRAND PORTAGE, SO OVERALL
COVERAGE WILL BE LOW.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BJH
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