032
FXUS63 KDLH 081134
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
534 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD.
- A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED
MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING, MAINLY AFFECTING AREAS SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE.
- TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 30S MOST DAYS. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
A BLANKET OF CLOUDS IS DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING, EVEN AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR
EAST. THIS HAS PRODUCED MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES WITH VALUES
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 ABOVE AS OF 3 AM. FOR TODAY, EXPECT A QUIET
BUT CLOUDY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S. WE MAY GET SOME LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WITH THE
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUING TONIGHT. THE GENERALLY WEAK FORCING AND LIGHT WIND
FLOW MAKES CONFIDENCE IN THIS ON THE LOW SIDE, SO WE HAVE HAD TO
KEEP POPS AND AMOUNTS LOW UNTIL WE CAN GET BETTER SIGNALS OF IF
AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, A BETTER ORGANIZED CLIPPER WILL PASS
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO. THE INITIAL WARM FRONT PASSES ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, BUT THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT AS
TO WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST. IF IT DOES, IT WILL LIKELY
BE A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, RAIN AND THE MIXTURE IN BETWEEN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. LATER
ON MONDAY A BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS, WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE. THE MODELS ARE ALSO
STRUGGLING WITH THE MOISTURE AND TIMING OF THE ASSOCIATED
FORCING, SO HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE UNTIL THE
UNCERTAINTY IMPROVES FOR THIS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING A WINTRY
MIXTURE OF RAIN, SNOW AND THE FREEZING STUFF IN BETWEEN, BUT
WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN AND THEN GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO
SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY SHOWERS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SOME HORIZONTAL
CONVECTIVE ROLLS ON TUESDAY, BUT SINCE THERE IS PRETTY POOR
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION, HAVE LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW.
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK, WE ENTER A
WARMER AND GENERALLY DRIER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL CONSISTENTLY
REACH THE 30S, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO SNEAK BACK INTO THE
FORECAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THROUGHOUT. SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF:
THIS EXTENDED STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL DEGRADE ICE QUALITY
ON OUR INLAND LAKES AND CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SHORELINES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CEILINGS RANGE FROM MVFR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE, WITH
VFR TO THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN OF DECREASING CEILINGS TO THE
NORTH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF TODAY. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, THE NEXT CLIPPER MOVES INTO THE AREA, BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS WHICH SLOWLY EXPAND AND SLIDE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FOUND ALONG THE TERRAIN RIDGE OF THE NORTH SHORE, WHERE
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND THE OROGRAPHICS WILL CAUSE CEILINGS TO LOWER.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 407 AM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS MOST OF TODAY,
WHICH THEN BECOME SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20
KNOTS. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE EAST OF GRAND
MARAIS. WAVES WILL REMAIN 1 FOOT OR LESS FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THOUGH THIS MAY BE MAINLY DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON THE LAKE. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
BECOMING WESTERLY BY EARLY TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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