546
FXUS63 KDLH 082322
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
522 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCES (<30%) FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX ALL
POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
- EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, BUT TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXTENDED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
VARIOUS WEAK LOWS AND FRONTS WERE ANALYZED ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. THIS ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
ARROWHEAD MAY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE REMAINS A CONCERN, HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
STILL OVER 10F DESPITE MODELS BEING MUCH MORE MOIST IN THE LOW
LEVELS. HAVE BACKED OFF ON CHANCES FOR THIS AND PUSHED IT LATER
INTO THIS EVENING TO GIVE THE LOW LEVELS MORE TIME TO SATURATE,
BUT THAT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER MONDAY WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES. ANY CHANCES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND
30% OR LESS, HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.
A CLIPPER WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SLIDING THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BEING IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE AN AREA OF MIDLEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ORIENTED EAST-WEST STARTING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TIMING,
PLACEMENT, AND STRENGTH ARE STILL IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST BULLISH IN ALL REGARDS. HAVE OPTED FOR A MORE BALANCED
APPROACH WITH RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING IN STARTING AROUND
NOON FROM THE WEST AND SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
IRON RANGE ACROSS MINNESOTA WITH THE BORDERLANDS POSSIBLY
REMAINING DRY UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY START OUT AS RAIN OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS OF WINTRY MIX AND
FREEZING RAIN IN SPOTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING. LATEST HREF SHOWS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH
MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA DURING
THIS TRANSITION. ACTIVITY WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AS
ANOTHER AREA OF VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH.
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER ACROSS IRON COUNTY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL LIMIT LAKE-EFFECT PROCESSES. ANY
SNOWFALL WILL BE UNDER AN INCH WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
OF ICE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP A FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN IN PLACE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN MONDAY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S BEFORE WARMING BACK
INTO THE 30S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO CHANCES FOR
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
A VFR STRATUS DECK ENGULFS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MOST OF THE MODELS (60%) HAVE THIS CLOUD DECK LOWERING TO
MVFR STATUS LATER THIS EVENING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS NORTHERN MN
BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, LATER INTO MONDAY
WE WILL SEE ANOTHER INFLUX OF CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR HEIGHTS
AS A SMALL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION TRACKS WEST TO EAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WAVE WILL SEE SEVERAL
PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES, INITIALLY BEING RAIN BUT SLOWLY MOVING TO
A BREIF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE GOING ALL SNOW IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACCUMULATIONS ARE LOW WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 341 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. THERE MAY BE A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS FROM
THE GRAND PORTAGE AREA EASTWARD FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH
MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AND VEER WESTERLY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BEFORE INCREASING TUESDAY TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. THIS MAY LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS
TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN LEAD TO VARIABLE WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BJH
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