878
FXUS63 KDLH 091136
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK-MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND WINTRY MIX ALL POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BY
TUESDAY, USHERING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL SEASONABLY MILD
AIR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A CLIPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLIDE
EAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO TODAY, WHICH WILL DICTATE OUR
WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
TOGETHER WITH A BIT OF LIFT WILL CREATE A BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST, MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BECAUSE WE ARE SITTING IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 30S TODAY, MUCH OF
THIS INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX.
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA AND CAUSE THE
PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION OVER THE MORE SNOW, WITH A PERIOD OF
WINTRY MIX IN THERE AS WELL TO CAUSE SOME EVENING COMMUTE
ISSUES. WHILE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT—GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH—AND ICE ACCRETION MINIMAL, IT DOES NOT TAKE MUCH
TO CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON UNTREATED SURFACES. BY LATE TONIGHT,
THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO THE EAST, THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
LINGERING FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
TO AROUND 30. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THAT SHOULD HELP GENERATE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME OF OUR CAM MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON THIS, BUT IT IS INCONSISTENT AND NOT REALLY SHOWING ON THE
LARGER SCALE MODELS, SO HAVE KEPT POPS LOW. THE SIGNAL IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH FOR SNOW SQUALLS, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO AROUND 30.
THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS RELATIVE, AS READINGS
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK LOOKS REMARKABLY QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN,
KEEPING THE STORM TRACK AWAY FROM OUR REGION. WE EXPECT A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN CLOUDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS
WELL, AND THE MODELS ARE FOCUSING ON A STRONG SYSTEM WHICH MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, LEAVING THE NORTHLAND WITH GENERALLY
DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
EAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY AFFECTING KBRD, KDLH AND KHYR, WITH
LESSER EFFECTS AT KHIB AND KINL. IT SHOULD ALSO BRING CEILINGS
DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES. THIS WAVE WILL SEE
SEVERAL PRECIPITATION TYPE CHANGES, INITIALLY BEING RAIN BUT
SLOWLY MOVING TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE GOING
ALL SNOW IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOW WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AFTER MIDNIGHT
EVEN AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS REACHING 20 TO 25 KNOTS, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE EAST OF GRAND MARAIS. WAVES WILL REMAIN
SUPPRESSED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE COVER WHICH CAN BE SEEN ON
THE LAKE, BUT WHERE THERE IS OPEN WATERS, WAVES MAY BUILD UP TO
1 FOOT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE VEERING STILL FURTHER INTO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SPEEDS SHOULD ALSO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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