539
FXUS63 KDLH 101732
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DAILY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING, LEADING TO THAWING AND REFREEZING ACROSS THE REGION.
- DRY CONDITIONS AFTER TODAY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THE WINTRY SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RECENT PRECIPITATION TO THE
NORTHLAND IS CURRENTLY EXITING TO THE EAST, BUT WE ARE NOT QUITE
DONE WITH THE SNOW JUST YET. COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND
ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS. THESE FEATURES WILL MANIFEST AS SCATTERED BANDS OF SNOW
AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WHILE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS REGARDING THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND FORCING WITHIN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH WOULD INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE
RATHER THAN SNOW, EXPERIENCE WITH THESE POST-FRONTAL SETUPS
SUGGESTS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW. HOWEVER, BECAUSE THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE BATTLING DRY
AIR AT THE SURFACE, ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NO MORE THAN A TRACE IN MOST LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, AND WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES OFF TO THE EAST.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, A STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. THIS HIGH HAS ALREADY
FORCED A WEAK SHORTWAVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY TO
TRACK MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, EFFECTIVELY REMOVING ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN THE WESTERN WARM SECTOR OF THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SHIFT
IN THE PATTERN WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. DAYTIME HIGHS
WILL LIKELY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
LEADING TO A DAILY FREEZE-THAW CYCLE THAT COULD MAKE UNTREATED
SURFACES LIKE SIDEWALKS AND SECONDARY ROADS SLIPPERY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, BUT IT CURRENTLY LACKS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE, SUGGESTING ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT
BEST. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT. BEYOND THE
WEEKEND, THE PATTERN MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A BROADER
TROUGHING SIGNATURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES, BUT
FOR NOW, THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A RELATIVELY DRY AND MILD
STRETCH OF WEATHER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, DECREASING STEADILY TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE
20 TO NEAR 30 KT RANGE TO BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER
CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN LOW CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE THESE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT, AND IT IS TRICKY TO TIME OUT WHEN OR
IF SOME SCATTERING MAY OCCUR AT SOME TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN AT SOME POINT, BUT CLEARING
MAY BE TEMPORARY. COVERAGE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS
MAY REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE AT DLH/HIB/INL TONIGHT WHILE
DECREASING AT BRD/HYR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO SOME TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARDS VFR BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR NEARSHORE WATERS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS NEAR THE SHORE DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION, THOUGH AREAS FURTHER OUT TOWARD THE
APOSTLE ISLANDS MAY SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHOP. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>142-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ145-
146-148.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...KML
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