625
FXUS63 KDLH 101915
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
115 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DAILY HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING, LEADING TO THAWING AND REFREEZING ACROSS THE
REGION.
- DRY CONDITIONS AFTER TODAY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER UP IN ONTARIO HAS
BROUGHT ENOUGH LIFT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE BULK OF THESE ARE UP IN THE ARROWHEAD WHERE THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE ARE. DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE EAST, SO SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS PERHAPS LINGERING IN
THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
REMAINING. AT THE MOST, EXPECT A DUSTING OF SNOW AND SOME BRIEFLY
REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM SOME OF THESE, BUT MOST PLACES WILL SIMPLY
CONTINUE TO SEE A FEW SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR HERE AND THERE BEFORE
THEY END.
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS, POST-COLD FRONTAL WINDS HAVE BEEN
BLUSTERY TODAY AND THEY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT.
DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY
TONIGHT (UP TO AROUND 25 MPH), BUT LESS WIND ELSEWHERE.
BROAD RIDGING TO OUR WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THE REST
OF THE WEEK, INTO THIS WEEKEND, AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WELL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER US FOR WEDNESDAY,
LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. WE WILL GET INTO A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE
LOOKING TO BE PRETTY BALMY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF, AND LIKELY DRY, CLIPPER PASSING
THROUGH AROUND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. SO,
EXPECT THE WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING IF WE SEE A FEW PLACES IN EAST-
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI HITTING 50 ON ONE OR TWO OF THESE DAYS,
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE WITH THESE LATE-WINTER WARM UPS. THE OTHER
THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING
EVERY NIGHT, SO THE FREEZE-THAW CYCLE WILL RESULT IN SOME MESSY AND
ICY CONDITIONS FOR UNTREATED SURFACES (PROBABLY NOT SO MUCH
ROADWAYS, BUT DRIVEWAYS, SIDEWALKS, DECKS, ETC.).
AS WE LOOK FURTHER OUT, A PATTERN CHANGE MIGHT BE COMING AS BROAD
TROUGHING COULD POTENTIALLY REPLACE THE RIDGING OVER THE WEST. THIS
WOULD PUT US INTO MORE OF A SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST STORM TRACK AND
FAVOR MORE COLORADO LOWS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST PERHAPS LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS DOESN'T GUARANTEE ANYTHING FOR THE NORTHLAND, BUT ODDS
MAY TILT SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE FAVOR OF STORM SYSTEMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE MORE NOTEWORTHY RAIN AND/OR SNOW THAN WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST
COUPLE WEEKS OR SO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, DECREASING STEADILY TONIGHT. EXPECT GUSTS IN THE
20 TO NEAR 30 KT RANGE TO BE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER
CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN LOW CLOUDS. THERE ARE SOME AREAS WHERE THESE
CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT, AND IT IS TRICKY TO TIME OUT WHEN OR
IF SOME SCATTERING MAY OCCUR AT SOME TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN AT SOME POINT, BUT CLEARING
MAY BE TEMPORARY. COVERAGE OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS
MAY REMAIN STEADY OR INCREASE AT DLH/HIB/INL TONIGHT WHILE
DECREASING AT BRD/HYR AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BRING TEMPORARY MVFR
VISIBILITIES TO SOME TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
TOWARDS VFR BY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT HEADLINES AS WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS HAVE BEEN HOVERING IN
THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BUT
GRADUALLY START TO DECREASE IN SPEED INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND GUSTS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN.
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO THURSDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PRETTY TAME GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>142-
150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ145-
146-148.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS
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