884
FXUS63 KDLH 241720
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. A WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY WITH WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE ARROWHEAD.
- A COUPLE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW (10-30% CHANCES) LATER
THIS WEEK, MAINLY IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S, FOLLOWED
BY A SHARP COOLDOWN NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 909 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
WITH THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW MOVING EAST OF THE WINTER STORM
WARNING IN COOK COUNTY, OPTED TO REPLACE WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS SNOW TOTALS SHOULDN'T RISE TO THE AMOUNTS PREDICTED.
AN ADVISORY SEEMS PERFECTLY REASONABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE
UPSTREAM SNOW WHICH WAS SUPPOSED TO HAPPEN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
MISS IT TO THE NORTH AND EAST. STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AS WE LOSE ICE
ALOFT. STILL THINKING WE CAN END THE REMAINING ADVISORIES AFTER
THAT THREAT PASSES WHICH COULD BE BEFORE THEIR CURRENT END
TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS:
OUR INCOMING CLIPPER IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE PRESSURE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
BECKONING THE LOW TO GLIDE THROUGH THE REGION. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN
OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES EITHER STAYING STEADY OR RISING A FEW
DEGREES OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. WHILE THE RADAR DEPICTION
WOULD SUGGEST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN MN WE ARE
NOT YET SEEING MUCH AT THE SURFACE AS DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
STILL HAS ITS FOOT IN THE DOOR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
OVER SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MEETING THE
TERRAIN RIDGE OF THE NORTH SHORE HAS ALLOWED SNOW TO START FALLING.
TODAY:
THE COMPACT LOW PRESSURE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING IS SET
TO QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING
REMAINS ACROSS NORTHERN MN, PARTICULARLY IN THE ARROWHEAD BETWEEN
6AM AND NOON. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW A SHALLOW DGZ BETWEEN 700-600MB
WITH A LAYER OF WARMER AIR BENEATH THE ZONE. SOME RIMING CAN BE
EXPECTED DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE DENDRITES AND SUPERCOOLED
WATER IN THIS LAYER, BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT WE SAW WITH THIS
LAST WINTER STORM. SLRS ARE CLOSER TO 15:1 WHICH IS MORE TYPICAL
OF THE SNOWFALL THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOWFALL RATES WILL VARY
BETWEEN 0.5" TO 1" PER HOUR BUT PAIRING THIS WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 30 MPH MAY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE WITH
ACTIVITY WRAPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WE COULD STILL SEE SOME
LINGERING HCRS IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING SYSTEM. A STRONG PUSH
OF COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN LEADING TO SOME STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, ANY MOISTURE THAT IS LOITERING ABOUT COULD END UP
PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS.
A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH SNOW NOT YET
FLYING ACROSS NORTHERN MN WE HAVE LOWERED THE QPF A SMIDGE. NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINE CANCELLATIONS BUT UPGRADES WILL NOT BE
NEEDED WITH THIS CYCLE. ANOTHER SMALL EDIT WAS TO INTRODUCE SOME
FREEZING RAIN IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN PART
OF NW WI. A SMALL WARM NOSE LOOKS TO BE PRESENT BETWEEN 6AM AND
10AM. MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED DUE TO THE PACE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
WARM NOSE QUICKLY COLLAPSING ON ITSELF AS COLD AIR FILTERS IN. AT
WORST THERE WILL BE 0.01" OF ICE ACCUMULATION THAT MIXES IN WITH THE
SNOW. LASTLY, NO EXPECTED CHANGES TO THE SOUTH SHORE WHERE ANOTHER
ADVISORY IS OUT FOR IRON COUNTY. LAKE EFFECT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
RAMP UP LATER THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN PLAY ONCE AGAIN. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS BUT WILL
MARK THE START OF OUR WARMING TREND TO ROUND OUT THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH HIGHS TOPPING OFF IN THE
40S FOR FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE AS MODELS
WAFFLE WITH THE PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE EXTENDED.
THERE REMAINS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY WITH ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD
STAYING TO OUR SOUTH OR JUST BARELY BRUSHING OUR SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES. THURSDAY WILL SEE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED OFF TO
THE EAST WITH INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT
COULD GENERATE SOME PRECIPITATION AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE
BULLISH ON THE QPF THEN PREVIOUSLY AS THE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE
COUPLED WITH SOME PVA. DESPITE THIS CHANGE, NBM IS KEEPING POPS
AROUND 20% ACROSS NORTHERN MN. SHOULD THIS TREND HOLD FOR THE
NEXT CYCLE WE MAY NEED TO INTERVENE AND INCREASE AND EXPAND POPS.
FRIDAY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN BOTH THE GEFS AND THE EPS OF
TAKING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS MANITOBA AND THROUGH ONTARIO.
THIS WILL HELP TO DRAW THOSE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN FOR FRIDAY. THE
LATEST 00Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FAVORS KEEPING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH ONLY A 20% CHANCE OF
SNOW FOR NORTHERN MN. ONE ITEM TO BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR FRIDAY MAY
BE SNOW SQUALLS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SWING IN FROM THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH A STRONG FGEN
CIRCULATION. STEEP LAPSE RATES ONLY EXTEND UP TO AROUND 1.5KM WHICH
MAY MITIGATE THE THREAT. REGARDLESS OF THE SNOW SQUALL THREAT,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS AND TWENTIES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PATCHY FZDZ AFTER THE
MAIN SNOW BAND HAS PASSED, SO SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR
AS WE'VE LARGELY LOST ICE IN THE CLOUD PER SATELLITE IMAGERY.
STILL EXPECT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH LATE EVENING
IN THE AREAS WHERE SOME PATCHY ICE ALOFT STILL EXISTS. GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS, TURN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WEAKEN
TOWARDS THE TAF END.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STREAMING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS. THE GALE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
BUT IS NOT COMPLETELY GONE. A FEW GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS BETWEEN 7AM AND 10AM. A CLIPPER WILL MOVE
THROUGH TODAY PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND REDUCING VISIBILITY.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING
SYSTEM FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, KATABATIC WINDS ON THE NORTH
SHORE COULD LEAD TO GALES FROM TACONITE TO GRAND PORTAGE. FREEZING
SPRAY IS ALSO A THREAT FOR TACONITE THROUGH GRAND PORTAGE THIS
MORNING, THIS THREAT MAY SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SHORE THIS EVENING AS
WINDS TURN TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ012-020-021.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WIZ004.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ140>146-
148-150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LSZ140-
141.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ142.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM
CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ146-150.
UPDATE...WOLFE
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...BRITT
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