827
FXUS63 KDLH 250918
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD START THIS MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AROUND -20F ACROSS
NORTHERN MN. TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY
BEFORE FALLING OFF AGAIN INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO A STRONG
COLD FRONT. AFTERWARDS LOOK FOR A MORE GRADUAL WARM UP HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT SNOW (LESS THEN 1") THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
- STRONG WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. SNOW SQUALLS
MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MN
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING. RADAR STILL SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF HCRS OVER THE REGION
WITH EMBEDDED SNOW SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS DRIER AIR STARTING
TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE RADAR ECHOES ARE
BEGINNING TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY. MIGHT SEE ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO OF THESE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS BEFORE THEY ERODE. AS THE AIR
MASS NUDGES IN FROM THE WEST WE WILL ALSO SEE OUR WINDS BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOW TWENTIES
TODAY.
THURSDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GETS BRUSHED OFF TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY
AS A WARM FRONT ARRIVES IN THE WEST. ISENTROPIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS WEAK, BUT PAIRED WITH SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION. THE WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LACKS A
CONNECTION TO A GOOD MOISTURE SOURCE LEADING TO MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS. DESPITE WARM AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THE SOUNDING PROFILES REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL
HYDROMETEORS TO BE SNOW. OVERALL, MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED
WITH NORTHERN MN EXPECTING .5 TO 1" AND THE REST OF THE REGION
STAYING LESS THEN 0.5"
FRIDAY:
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO FRIDAY. IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD LOOKS TO
LARGELY MISS THE NORTHLAND BUT WE WILL STILL SEE SOME IMPACTFUL
WEATHER FROM THE TRAVELING LOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. THE EFI FOR WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN ARE AROUND 0.8 AND JUST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THEY ARE SITTING AROUND 0.9 WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1. EACH
OF THE LAST 3 MODEL RUNS HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
WINDS. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AROUND 50 MPH. SOME MOMENTUM WILL BE LOSS AS
IT GETS TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
ONE OTHER IMPACT TO BE WEARY OF IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NORTHERN MN WILL BE THE
PRIME AREA OF CONCERN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST.
SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 50 J/KG WITH STEEP
LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH 2 KM. THE PARAMETER SPACE BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER EVENING HOURS AND THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NW WI.
THE WEEKEND:
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS ZONE THE NORTHLAND LOOKS TO BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL LARGELY BE MITIGATED. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE
NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS WE ROUND OUT THE
WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE WEEK:
AFTER A BITTER START TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS OF AROUND -20F THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MN, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL CAP OUT IN THE TEENS/LOW TWENTIES
AND INCREASE TO THE FORTIES BY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT DIGS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR
SATURDAY. FROM HERE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WARMING TREND, ALBEIT
SLOWER THEN THE LAST ONE. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO CREEP BACK INTO THE
30S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WITH SOME HCRS ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING. HCRS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BUT STRATUS MAY LINGER
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE DOES HAVE SOME CLEARING
UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO CAPTURE
THIS. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TOMORROW MORNING AS STRATUS CLEARS THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 306 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
TAPER OFF LATER THIS MORNING WITH THE LAKE SEEING A BRIEF REPRIEVE
THROUGH THURSDAY. FRIDAY STRONG WINDS WILL RUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
ONCE AGAIN WITH GALES LIKELY. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN TURN TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR LSZ140>146-148-
150.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ146-150.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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