388
FXUS63 KDLH 260720
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
120 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW (LESS THEN 1") TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
- STRONG WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. SNOW
SQUALLS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN MN
- TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING
OFF AGAIN INTO SATURDAY THANKS TO A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AFTERWARDS LOOK FOR A MORE GRADUAL WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS/TODAY:
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SET TO
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH SNOW EXITING TO OUR EAST BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE HAS MADE A FEW EDITS IN THE
NEAR TERM INCLUDING THE REDUCTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE FRONT
DEPARTS. THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE THAT HAS COME IN SHOWS MUCH BETTER
SATURATION ALOFT THEN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS WHICH LEANS INTO A
ALL SNOW SOLUTION. ONE INTERESTING SIGNAL THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE IS A CLUSTER OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NW WI
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE RAP WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE WILL BE
FUELED BY A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED 700MB FGEN. TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS WE HAVE ADDED SOME 30% POPS ALONG ITS PATH THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. IMPACTS WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE JUST A
QUICK BURST OF SNOW THAT BRIEFLY REDUCES VISIBILITY. OVERALL,
LOW IMPACT SNOW THREAT TODAY WITH NORTHERN MN SEEING 0.5" TO 1"
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION AND A 0.5" OR LESS FOR NW WI.
FRIDAY:
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SET TO MOVE ACROSS MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO FRIDAY. IT'S ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SHIELD LOOKS TO
LARGELY MISS THE NORTHLAND BUT WE WILL STILL SEE SOME IMPACTFUL
WEATHER FROM THE TRAVELING LOW. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LEADING TO GUSTY WINDS. THE EFI FOR WIND GUSTS
ACROSS NORTHERN MN ARE AROUND 0.8 AND JUST ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER THEY ARE SITTING AROUND 0.9 WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS OF 1. EACH
OF THE LAST 3 MODEL RUNS HAS SEEN AN INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL
WINDS. SOUNDING PROFILES SHOW DEEP MIXING WITH WIND SPEEDS AT THE
TOP OF THE INVERSION AROUND 50 MPH. SOME MOMENTUM WILL BE LOSS AS
IT GETS TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE BUT WIDESPREAD POTENTIAL FOR
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY, ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN MN AND THE NORTH SHORE.
ONE OTHER IMPACT TO BE WEARY OF IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO
DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN MN AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. SURFACE INSTABILITY COULD BE
ON THE ORDER OF 50 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES UP THROUGH 2 KM.
THE PARAMETER SPACE BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS WE MOVE INTO THE
LATER EVENING HOURS AND THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI.
THE WEEKEND:
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND
BEFORE ITS BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS OUT OVER THE MIDWEST. WHILE
ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THIS ZONE THE NORTHLAND LOOKS TO BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
MITIGATE OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO STRONG
SIGNALS FOR ANY IMPACTFUL WEATHER AS WE ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER THROUGH THE WEEK:
WARMER TODAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF A COLD FRONT IN
THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT DIGS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM
THE NORTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR SATURDAY. FROM HERE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
WARMING TREND, ALBEIT SLOWER THEN THE LAST ONE. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO
CREEP BACK INTO THE 30S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GRADUALLY ASCEND TO
THE 40S BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A WARM
FRONT IS ADVANCING OUT OF THE WEST AND WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
THE REGION BEFORE EXITING LATER THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL FALL TO
MVFR AND VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED WITH SNOWFALL. BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE IS A SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE WEST TO EAST THAT MAY IMPACT
HIB/DLH. ALL SNOWY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AS A WARM FRONT
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. FRIDAY, STRONG WINDS WILL RUSH ACROSS THE
WATERS ONCE AGAIN WITH GALES LIKELY. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE EVENING. WINDS WILL INITIALLY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN TURN TO OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ020-021.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ140-141.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ142>146-150.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...BRITT
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...BRITT
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