281
FXUS63 KDLH 270538
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH EXCEPT
GUSTING TO 60 MPH IN THE FAR NORTH SHORE.
- SNOW SQUALLS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE 40S BY FRIDAY BEFORE
FALLING OFF AGAIN FRIDAY EVENING UNDER FLASH FREEZE CONDITIONS.
AFTERWARDS LOOK FOR A MORE GRADUAL WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL MAY SKIRT THE MINNESOTA BORDERLANDS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SLATED FOR FRIDAY LATE
MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE HAS MOVED
UP IN TIME BY A FEW HOURS IN GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE LAST DAY.
WINDS WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA ALONG AND
NORTH OF US HWY 2 AND DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WIND ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THIS PART OF THE NORTHLAND COVERING FRIDAY LATE MORNING TO LATE
EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE FRIDAY MID-AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING WHEN GUSTS TO 60 MPH
GUSTS ARE FORECAST IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY. THIS MAGNITUDE OF
WIND GUSTS MAY RESULT IN TREE LIMBS BEING KNOCKED DOWN AND CAUSE
SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY ALL OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE THREAT OF SNOW SQUALLS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FURTHER
NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS IS LARGELY LIMITED TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RIGHT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. THE DEEPEST POOL OF LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY IS PROGGED IN
HIGH RES AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE TO RESIDE JUST OVER THE BORDER INTO
ONTARIO. A FEW DIURNALLY-AIDED SNOW SHOWERS COULD STILL CREATE A
QUICK BURST OF LOCALIZED HEAVY SNOWFALL IN BORDERLAND PLACES
THOUGH FRIDAY PM.
THE TIMING OF FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL CONCERNS HAS ALSO MOVED UP
IN TIME BY FEW HOURS COMPARED TO THE FORECAST 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
ALSO PROMOTES AN EARLIER ONSET OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES NOW
INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS OF THE IRON RANGE
NORTHWARD. BY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MOST AREAS THAT WERE IN
THE 40S THAT AFTERNOON TO BE OBSERVING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TEENS TO UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.
WHILE WINDS DO DECREASE MIDNIGHT AFTERWARD FRIDAY NIGHT,
LINGERING GUSTS AND THAT SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS CREATES
FORECAST WIND CHILLS BY SATURDAY EARLY MORNING OF 10 TO 25 BELOW
ZERO. EVEN COLDER AIR TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUNDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 2
AND 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND RETURNS NEXT WEEK UNDER A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE HINTS OF A POSSIBLE
SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK SYSTEM MOVING SOMEWHERE THROUGH THE MIDWEST
NEXT WEDNESDAY PM INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CIGS ARE OCCURRING OVERNIGHT WITH FLURRIES MOVING THROUGH FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FOG, WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WI, WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING IN KHYR AS WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT AND SKIES POTENTIALLY CLEAR. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE. IN ADDITION TO GUSTY WINDS, THERE IS A 35% CHANCE FOR SNOW
SQUALLS IMPACTING KINL THIS MORNING LEADING TO IFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITY. LLWS IS ALSO A CONCERN IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT BEGIN TO SETUP FRIDAY
MORNING UNDER INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE FOR MOST NEARSHORE
WATERS. STORM-FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE LIKELY FROM TACONITE
HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. THESE CONDITIONS TAPER IN COVERAGE AND
MAGNITUDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAMP DOWN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES VERY LIKELY BEING NEEDED AFTER THE WARNINGS EXPIRE
LATE FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS LAST INTO
SATURDAY DAYTIME, BUT FORECAST AROUND OR LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE ON VESSELS FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. WAVES
WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 11 FEET FRIDAY PM.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR MNZ012-019-020-037.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-
026.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ021.
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR WIZ001-002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ140-141.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR LSZ140-141-150.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LSZ142>146-150.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...NLY
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