607
FXUS63 KDLH 271713
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1113 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 60 MPH, A POTENTIAL
FLASH FREEZE, AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THE
BORDERLANDS.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY,
WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE CWA. WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN THE
900-800MB LAYER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION HAS BEEN PRODUCING
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ACCUMULATION WILL BE
FAIRLY MINIMAL AT UP TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH BY AROUND SUNRISE
THIS MORNING.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA, BRINGING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS,
FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL, AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THE
BORDERLANDS. LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MANITOBA, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS LOW
WILL BE PROPAGATING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STOUT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVES EAST. WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA IN CANADA, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH TODAY. TIMING FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THIS
FRONT WILL BE BY MID-MORNING IN THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA AND BY THE
MID AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR EASTERN CWA.
AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM AROUND
MIDDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THIS COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUICKLY DROPPING THIS AFTERNOON TO
BELOW FREEZING. SINCE SURFACES WILL LIKELY BE WET FROM SOME
SNOWMELT, THESE RAPIDLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATER TODAY COULD LEAD
TO A FLASH FREEZE AND SLIPPERY SURFACES.
IN ADDITION TO THE FLASH FREEZE POTENTIAL, STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED OVER THE CWA TODAY, WITH 3 HOUR
PRESSURE TENDENCIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING RAPIDLY RISING
IN EXCESS OF 7 MB. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE ARROWHEAD, WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 30 MPH, WITH
GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTH OF US-2 IN MINNESOTA AND DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD
COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IN SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY, STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION PAIRED WITH THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY
LIKELY (70% CHANCE) TO LEAD TO WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH AS
KATABATIC WINDS OCCUR FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SAWTOOTH
MOUNTAINS. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.
THE FINAL POTENTIAL HAZARD FROM THIS STRONG COLD FRONT TODAY WILL BE
SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MODERATELY STEEP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 0-2KM LAYER OF 6.5-7 DEGC/KM WILL LEAD TO
LOW-LEVEL MUCAPE INCREASING UP TO 50 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THIS INSTABILITY,
STRONG ISALLOBARIC WIND DEVELOPING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG
PRESSURE RISES IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE RESULTING AREA OF STRONG
925MB FGEN COMBINED WITH MODERATELY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION
WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THE BORDERLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FROM THE CAMS
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE BORDER,
WHERE DYNAMIC FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER,
SNOW SQUALLS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FAR NORTHERN CWA TODAY.
AFTER THE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, A MUCH
QUIETER PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO SETTLE INTO THE CWA FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. CHILLY TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR BRIEFLY DESCENDS INTO THE AREA,
WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEGATIVE TEENS. WIND CHILLS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE AS LOW AS -22
DEGREES IN THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. THIS SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WON'T
BE LINGERING THOUGH, AS A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK
BRINGS A WARMING TREND. THERE CONTINUE TO BE HINTS OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TAPPING INTO GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE
THIS UPCOMING WEEK. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFICS
GIVEN THE VARIABILITY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE GLOBAL MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 03Z EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS DECREASE FROM 03 TO 09Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA. A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM 19-02Z COULD CREATE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF BRAINERD TO HAYWARD IS STILL WORTH
WATCHING AFTER 15Z SAT FOR ANY POSSIBLE MIST/MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT
THIS MOMENT AT THE END THIS TAF PERIOD TO PLACE THEM IN THE
CURRENT ISSUANCE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT BEGIN THIS MORNING UNDER
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. DANGEROUS CONDITIONS DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO GALE-FORCE FOR MOST NEARSHORE WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. STORM-FORCE GUSTS
TO 50 KT ARE EXPECTED FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE.
THESE CONDITIONS TAPER IN COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE LATE TONIGHT WITH
RAMP DOWN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED AFTER THE
WARNINGS EXPIRE LATE TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE WESTERN WATERS
LAST INTO SATURDAY DAYTIME, BUT ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND OR LESS
THAN 20 KNOTS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE ON
VESSELS FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC AIR
ARRIVES. WAVES WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 11 FEET BY THIS EVENING, MOST
LIKELY AROUND THE APOSTLE ISLANDS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ012-019-020-
037.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-011-018-
025-026-035.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ021.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ140-141.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140-141-150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142>146-150.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...UNRUH
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