290
FXUS63 KDLH 271954
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
154 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY IS BRINGING STRONG
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 60 MPH, A POTENTIAL
FLASH FREEZE, AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS IN THE
BORDERLANDS.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COOK COUNTY,
WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- AFTER A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS EXTENDING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH INTO THIS EVENING.
WIND ADVISORIES AND A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH
THIS EVENING TODAY. GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN
OBSERVED AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, LASTING INTO LATE EVENING TODAY. SOUTHERN COOK
COUNTY IS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH FROM LATE AFTERNOON
TO LATE EVENING HOURS TODAY. CURRENT HEADLINES REMAIN THE SAME
FROM THE EARLIER EXPANSION IN AREAL COVERAGE INTO NORTHERN CASS
AND NORTHERN AITKIN COUNTIES.
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS IS BEING OBSERVED
TODAY ON SURFACE OBSERVATION STATIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S PRESENTLY. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
BORDERLANDS WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY PEAKED FOR TODAY. A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS CAN BE SEE ENTERING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS BEHIND THIS PASSING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RAPIDLY FALL POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. ANY STANDING WATER COULD SEE A QUICK
FREEZE OVER, OR A FLASH FREEZE, FROM THESE RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES.
A QUICK MOVING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED ON REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAICS UP INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE ARE BEING MONITORED
FOR ANY MOVEMENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE MN BORDERLANDS OVER THE NEXT
4-5 HOURS TODAY. THE SNOW SHOWER MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS
REMAINS THROUGH THE POST-SUNSET HOURS THIS EVENING FOR THE
ARROWHEAD. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS IS A
DEEPER MOISTURE POOL LOCATED JUST OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER, WHEREAS SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, A BAND OF
FRONTAL FORCING AND INSTABILITY DO EXIST WITHIN 10-25 MILES OF
THE BORDER INTO MINNESOTA.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A PERIOD OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT TAKE A FEW HOURS TO CLEAR OUT PAST MIDNIGHT. ONCE
THOSE WINDS DO SHUT OFF THOUGH AND THE SKY COVER CLEARS, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL EVEN FURTHER FOR LOW-LYING AREAS UNDER
IDEALIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW MORNING ARE FORECAST FROM PLUS 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
AN AREA OF BANDED SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BEFORE MOVING INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN TOMORROW PM. THIS BAND
PLACEMENT RIGHT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE NORTHLAND HAS
CREATED AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF MN 210 TO WI 70.
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS QUICK COLD SPELL THIS WEEKEND
ARE LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AIR TEMPERATURES OF 10 TO
20 BELOW ZERO ARE FORECAST NORTH OF US HWY 2 AND 0 TO 10 BELOW
SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
A DRY WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP SUNDAY UNDER SLOWLY REBOUNDING
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NORMAL. EXPECT NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE HINTS OF A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW PRESSURE TRACK FROM THE
CENTRAL U.S. REMAIN IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WORK
WEEK AND ARE REFLECTED WITH A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH 03Z EARLY TONIGHT.
WINDS DECREASE FROM 03 TO 09Z TONIGHT AS MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM CANADA. A FEW STRAY SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM 19-02Z COULD CREATE A RAPID
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY FOR SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. A SYSTEM
MOVING TO THE SOUTH OF BRAINERD TO HAYWARD IS STILL WORTH
WATCHING AFTER 15Z SAT FOR ANY POSSIBLE MIST/MVFR CEILINGS.
THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THOSE CONDITIONS OCCURRING AT
THIS MOMENT AT THE END THIS TAF PERIOD TO PLACE THEM IN THE
CURRENT ISSUANCE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE MINNESOTA NORTH SHORE FOR GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS.
GALE WARNINGS COVER MOST OF THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 CM PER HOUR LIKELY. WAVE HEIGHTS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT SO RAMP DOWN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED INTO
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING HOURS STILL AFTER THE CURRENT HEADLINES
EXPIRE EARLY TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS AROUND OR UNDER 10 KNOTS ARE
LIKELY THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ012-019-020-
037.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010-011-018-
025-026-035.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ021.
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-002.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ140-141.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM
CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ140-141-150.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142>146-150.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LSZ142.
DISCUSSION...NLY
AVIATION...NLY
MARINE...NLY
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