964
FXUS63 KDLH 281102
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY MORNING WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS.
- A DRY PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY QUIET THIS MORNING AS NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE EASED FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
YESTERDAY. LINGERING LOW STRATUS WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AS CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT OCCURS. IN THE SNOW BELT OF THE PENOKEE RANGE IN NORTHERN
IRON COUNTY, LAKE EFFECT STRATUS IS BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER, WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NO
SNOWFALL OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. WHILE FLURRIES ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO ELEVATED DELTA-TS
BETWEEN THE LAKE SFC AND 850MB OF AROUND 14-16 DEGC, DRY AIR
ADVECTION OCCURRING LATER THIS MORNING WILL BE BRINGING ANY
LINGERING FLURRIES TO AN END ACROSS THE CWA.
A BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPING AROUND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN INTO SOUTHERN WI
TODAY. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, IMPACTS FROM THIS PASSING BAND
OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. TOTAL SNOWFALL TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL ONLY BE
A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR AREAS SOUTH OF MN-210
AND WI-70. FOR MUCH OF THE CWA, SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WITH MUCH COOLER HIGH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER
TEENS.
THE BRIEF SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IMPACTING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND
WILL BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING IN THE NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE CWA WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT, THERE IS A 60+%
CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS LESS THAN -20 DEGREES IN THE MN ARROWHEAD
EAST OF US-53. WHILE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE NEEDED AT THIS TIME, IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY START TO
SUNDAY!
A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN DEVELOPS HEADING INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. SPLIT MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS VERY LIKELY (85% CHANCE) TO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A COLORADO
LOW POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS AND PROPAGATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPE IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM, WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURE CENTERS SHOWING LITTLE CLUSTERING AND
VERY WIDE SPATIAL VARIATION. THIS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED
IN THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING, WITH THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 40% RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WITH SNOW CHANCES REMAINING TO THE SOUTH HAVE OPTED TO REMOVE
ANY MENTION OF EVEN PROB30S. THE SNOW APPEARS TO BE SETTING UP
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT IMPACTS DID NOT MEET THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE
FOR A PROB30. WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
TONIGHT WITH VFR CEILINGS. THERE IS AN AREA OF LOWER MVFR
CEILINGS OVER THE ARROWHEAD, BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF HIB
AND NORTH OF DLH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEEN EASING THIS MORNING FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT YESTERDAY. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
TO PERSIST TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR
LESS. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY, WITH SPEEDS AND
GUSTS REMAINING AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN,
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, WILL BE ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO INCREASES THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KNOTS POSSIBLE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...NDC
MARINE...UNRUH
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