487
FXUS63 KDLH 281918
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
118 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
SUB ZERO LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
- WARMING AGAIN FOR THE COMING WORK WEEK WITH A DAILY
FREEZE/THAW CYCLE LIKELY. SOME DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
POCKETS OF 50S POSSIBLE.
- A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE BORDERLANDS TUESDAY,
AND THEN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN COULD START UP AGAIN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON EXACT STORM TRACK AND
TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATING MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT
THE NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND, THE NORTHLAND SHOULD STAY
UNDER FAIRLY CALM AND COLD CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO JUST BARELY TOP OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SUB ZERO OVERNIGHT LOWS. WHILE SOME MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN PREVALENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING FROM A
BAND OF SNOW TO OUR SOUTH, CLEARING IS EXPECTED UNDER THE HEART
OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TOMORROW TO MAKE FOR A CONGRUOUS SUNNY
SUNDAY.
INTO NEXT WEEK, WE’LL FIND OURSELVES STUCK IN THE SYNOPTIC
DOLDRUMS AS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND
TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ADVECTS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
AND WARMTH INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS BUT TROUGHING OVER
HUDSON BAY LOCKS OUR AREA INTO FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW AND ON THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE PREVAILING JET STREAM TO OUR NORTH. A
MOMENTARY BREAK IN THAT JET STREAM COULD YIELD ITSELF TO A
LITTLE CLIPPER BRUSHING OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TUESDAY
THAT MIGHT BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO THE FAR NORTH CWA.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION,
WITH HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EXPECTED FOR ALL OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE WEEK BUT A REFREEZE AT NIGHT IS LIKELY.
LATER IN THE WEEK, GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT
THAT TROUGHING SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO OUR
AREA. THIS WILL PROBABLY MEAN WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S MID TO LATE WEEK WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
CWA BORDER POSSIBLY STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT.
WITH CURRENT SNOWPACK CONDITIONS, SOME TRANSFORMATION AND MELT
IS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK, AND THIS MAY START TO EAT AWAY AT
THE ALREADY MEAGER SNOWPACK THAT EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE CWA. THE FREEZE/THAW CYCLE WILL ALSO LIKELY LEND ITSELF
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT.
ENSEMBLES ARE STARTING TO GET A LITTLE MORE ATTACHED TO THE IDEA
OF A COLORADO LOW TYPE SYSTEM THAT COULD MOVE OVER MN/WI IN THE
LATE THU - EARLY SAT TIMEFRAME IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME AREAS
OF HEAVY MIXED PRECIPITATION (RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW) COULD
BE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME RANGE HOWEVER, IT COULD ALSO SHIFT AND
MISS OUR AREA ENTIRELY. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR NOW.
ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, SYNOPTIC PATTERN AGREEMENT
BREAKS DOWN WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING BETWEEN HAVING MORE COLORADO
LOW/GULF AIR INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTH OR A RETURN TO SOME
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR AND SYSTEMS THAT TRACK ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. EVENTUALLY ENSEMBLES DO COME BACK TO SOME
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT COOLER AIRMASS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN MN
BY MID MARCH, BUT THE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAST WE GET THERE AND
WHAT KIND OF SYSTEMS WE EXPERIENCE BEFORE THAT POINT IS LARGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WITH DRY AIR WINNING OUT, WE HAVE REMOVED ANY MENTION OF
VCSH/VCSN FROM MAINLY BRD/HYR AS THE BAND OF SNOW HAS ENDED UP
SOUTH OF EVEN MSP. MID LEVEL VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
6-9 HOURS OF THE TAF, BECOMING SCT AND EVENTUALLY FEW250/SKC
AFTER 10Z. WINDS INITIALLY 330-360 AT 7-10KTS WILL DWINDLE TO
03-05KTS AND TREND TOWARDS 350-020 WITH NO GUSTING. VFR EXPECTED
FOR ALL SITES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WITH
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY.
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS TURN TO BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO MONDAY. THOSE SW WINDS COULD INCREASE INTO
MONDAY AS WARM AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE
FROM TACONITE HARBOR TO GRAND PORTAGE. CALMER CONDITIONS RETURN
INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...WFO DLH
MARINE...LEVENS
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