652
FXUS63 KDLH 011124
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
- AFTER A COLD START THIS MORNING, THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME UNSEASONABLY WARM, WITH HIGH TEMPS INCREASING WELL
ABOVE FREEZING.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. DEPENDING ON STORM
TRACK, THIS COULD INCLUDE A WINTRY MIX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MARCH WILL BE COMING IN LIKE A LAMB THIS YEAR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE AREA TODAY. SKIES HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN CLEARING EARLY THIS
MORNING AS THIS SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE BORDERLANDS FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA. AS SKIES HAVE
CLEARED, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN PLUMMETING WITH RECENT OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS DOWN TO THE TEENS TO
20 BELOW ZERO. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING ARE FORECAST TO BE LOWEST IN
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MN INTO THE ARROWHEAD, WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES HAS BEEN PERSISTING THE LONGEST. LOW TEMPS THIS
MORNING WILL THE COLDEST IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, RANGING FROM AROUND
0 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA TO AROUND -20 IN FAR NORTH-CENTRAL MN
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. SINCE WINDS ARE LIGHT UNDER THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
THIS MORNING'S LOW TEMP.
AN OVERALL QUIET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH WILL
BRING MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY, WILL MOVE DOWNSTREAM
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTH OF THE CWA
THROUGH CANADA. THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH, BUT COULD STILL
PRODUCE FLURRIES IN THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ONLY A TRACE OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK, SPLIT MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL LARGELY KEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE RESULT OF THIS SYNOPTIC LULL WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS
ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE GRADUAL WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE CWA THIS
WEEK AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HIGH TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH HIGH TEMPS
INCREASING INTO THE 40S TO EVEN SOME LOW 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WHILE DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE INCREASING ABOVE FREEZING,
EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP BELOW FREEZING AS DIURNAL COOLING
OCCURS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE IN THE WEEK FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLORADO
LOW TYPE TRACK SYSTEM MOVING INTO MN/WI. UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LATE WEEK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS VERY HIGH GIVEN VERY LARGE
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS OF THE GEFS AND ECMWF. EARLY INDICATIONS SHOW THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE TAPPING INTO DEEP GULF MOISTURE, ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT A NON-
NEGLIGIBLE AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM MISSING OUR AREA ENTIRELY, SO IT'S CERTAINLY NOT A SLAM
DUNK FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES, INCLUDING RAIN, ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND/OR
WINTRY MIX, ARE POTENTIALLY ON THE TABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CANADA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING
WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. THIS PASSING LOW PRESSURE IS
ALSO FORECAST TO PRODUCE LLWS EARLY MONDAY MORNING IN THE MN
ARROWHEAD. THIS PASSING LOW PRESSURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS IN NORTH-CENTRAL MN TOWARDS THE IRON RANGE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
GENERALLY NORTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AND ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS
WARM AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON MONDAY FOR NORTH SHORE WATERS NORTH OF TACONITE HARBOR DUE
TO THESE INCREASED SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A 50-60% CHANCE
FOR GALES IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS FROM HOVLAND TO GRAND PORTAGE ON
MONDAY. A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO EASE ON
MONDAY EVENING WITH CALMER CONDITIONS RETURNING ON TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...UNRUH
MARINE...UNRUH
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