828
FXUS63 KDLH 012337
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
537 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. A DAILY THAW IS LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE LOWS REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING MID TO LATE WEEK.
- A COUPLE WEAK SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH COULD BRING AREAS OF FLURRIES
TO THE BORDERLANDS MONDAY - TUESDAY.
- A LARGE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
EARLY WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON EXACT STORM TRACK AND TEMPERATURES,
ACCUMULATING MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD IMPACT THE NORTHLAND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS LEADING TO A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S. THIS IS THE LAST TIME THAT OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THIS COLD FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WARM AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST AND WE FIND OURSELVES STUCK IN THE SYNOPTIC DOLDRUMS.
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND TROUGHING OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ADVECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND WARMTH INTO
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. WE SHOULD BE RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF THIS
RELATIVELY TROPICAL AIRMASS, ALLOWING OUR DAYTIME HIGHS TO EASILY
RISE ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY AND BEYOND. MONDAY, AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HWY 2 COULD SEE 40F. BY WEDNESDAY, WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO HIGH 40S WITH SOME POCKETS OF 50F ARE LIKELY FOR
EVERYONE AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. GENERALLY, WE SHOULD SEE A
REFREEZE AT NIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK BUT AS WAA
REACHES ITS MAX LATER IN THE WEEK, SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET BACK BELOW 32F.
THESE TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH LIKELY FOG DEVELOPMENT AND A
HIGHER MARCH SUN ANGLE ARE GOING TO LEAD TO SOME SNOWPACK
TRANSFORMATION AND MELT. FOR AREAS WITH ONLY A COUPLE INCHES LEFT ON
THE GROUND, THIS WILL PROBABLY MELT AND SUBLIMATE, THOUGH IT COULD
TAKE A DAY OR TWO INTO THE WEEK FOR THE SNOW TEMPERATURE TO WARM
ENOUGH TO REALLY START EATING AWAY AT THAT ALREADY MEAGER SNOWPACK
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES THE THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY. FURTHER
NORTH WHERE THE SNOWPACK IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL AND AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR, SOME TRANSFORMATION AND SETTLING SHOULD OCCUR FIRST, BUT
WITH PERSISTENT DAYS ABOVE FREEZING A VERY GRADUAL MELT COULD BEGIN
BY MID TO LATE WEEK. BY THE COMING WEEKEND, WE MIGHT SEE A LITTLE
RESPONSE IN AREA RIVERS BUT NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
A COUPLE LITTLE SYSTEMS TO THE NORTH WILL PROBABLY BRING SOME CLOUDS
TO THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, AND MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT
SOME FLURRIES OCCASIONALLY FOR THE BORDERLANDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FRI-SAT TIMEFRAME FOR A COLORADO LOW TYPE
SYSTEM THAT COULD MOVE OVER MN/WI. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR A SYSTEM THAT WILL BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE
PRIMED MOISTURE/WARMTH BUILDING IN THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, SOME AREAS OF HEAVY MIXED
PRECIPITATION (RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, SNOW) COULD BE POSSIBLE. OUR
FORECAST AT THE MOMENT IS PRIMARILY RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE
BACKSIDE, BUT LOTS COULD CHANGE AT THIS TIME RANGE.
ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, ADDITIONAL WARM DAYS ARE SEEMING
MORE LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEKEND BEFORE WE COULD POTENTIALLY COOL INTO A
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURE REGIME (LARGELY BACK BELOW FREEZING) GOING
INTO MID MARCH. THE PATTERN DOES POTENTIALLY REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE
LOOKING AHEAD, SO WE COULD HAVE MORE SHOTS AT ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, AND WITH THAT, EXPECT
AN INVERSION TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH LLWS. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
MAINLY AFFECT INL/HIB AND ALSO INTO DLH THIS MORNING. BRD/HYR
ARE EXPECTED TO MISS LLWS EXCEPT PERHAPS VERY BRIEFLY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS STRENGTHEN TONIGHT GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. SOME CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AS WELL, BUT VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
FAIRLY CALM CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TODAY LIGHT WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST. THROUGH THIS EVENING, WINDS TURN TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
INTO MONDAY. THOSE SW WINDS COULD INCREASE INTO MONDAY AS WARM AIR
SURGES INTO THE AREA. SOME GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20-25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THAT ZONE WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE. CALMER
CONDITIONS RETURN INTO TUESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
LSZ141>146-148-150.
DISCUSSION...LEVENS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...LEVENS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page