505
FXUS63 KDLH 020855
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
255 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
- FREEZE/THAW CYCLE MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- LARGER SYSTEM POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND MAY BRING MIXED
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WAS
LEADING TO AN AREA OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE WERE SOME RADAR RETURNS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STRATUS DECK, BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE
AND HIGH CLOUD BASES, NOTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND. THIS AREA
OF STRATUS WILL DEPART TO THE EAST THIS MORNING LEAVING MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FOR TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO
THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD 40S AND 50S EXPECTED BY
WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING BELOW FREEZING. THIS
FREEZE/THAW CYCLE WILL LEAD TO MELTING SNOWPACK DURING THE DAY.
WITH OVERALL INCREASING MOISTURE FROM PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
IN ADDITION TO THE MELTING SNOW, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND LEAD TO EASTERLY WINDS OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
NEAR THE LAKE WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WELL INLAND.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A DEEP TROUGH PUSH INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WITH LOW PRESSURE FORMING AHEAD OF IT IN EASTERN COLORADO.
THIS LOW WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AND SPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND STARTING FRIDAY. MODELS
ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE
STILL TIMING AND TRACK DIFFERENCES. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH AND DROP A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLDER AIR AND THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, THERE
MAY BE SOME FREEZING PRECIPITATION TO CONTEND WITH AS WELL.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A
BIT OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
WORK WITH AFTER SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF
IT, SO RAINFALL MAY BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES AND, COMBINED
WITH RESULTANT SNOWMELT, MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA
WATERWAYS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO STAY ACTIVE HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEK WITH ANOTHER LARGE SYSTEM POSSIBLE HEADING INTO MID-NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS BROUGHT AN AREA OF VFR MID CLOUDS AND
LLWS TO THE AREA. THE LLWS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT INL/HIB/DLH
OVERNIGHT. BRD/HYR ARE EXPECTED HAVE STRONGER SURFACE WINDS, SO
NO LLWS EXCEPT PERHAPS VERY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE, WINDS STRENGTHEN
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MELTING OF THE SNOW
COVER WITH THE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FOG
OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. PROBABILITIES FOR LOWER
FLYING CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE, BUT HAVE INCLUDED MVFR
CEILINGS FOR KHYR, AS THIS SITE SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED. PROBABILITIES INCREASE FOR THE REMAINING SITES AFTER
06Z.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
TODAY TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. GALES TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE AS
WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, ONLY AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
LSZ140.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LSZ140.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ141>146-148-150.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...BJH
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