428
FXUS63 KDLH 030009
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
609 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DAILY FREEZE AND THAW CYCLE WITH MELTING SNOWPACK WILL LEAD
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A LARGE SYSTEM ARRIVING FRIDAY AND LINGERING INTO THE WEEKEND
BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN, MIXED PRECIPITATION, AND A
LITTLE SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, EXPECT AMPLE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
DRIFTS FURTHER EAST. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUR TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL BE QUITE BREEZY, GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH, BEFORE
SLOWLY DIMINISHING THIS EVENING AS THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES AND
AN INVERSION SETS UP.
WE ARE ENTERING A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND THAT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER STORY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD 40S AND
EVEN SOME LOWER 50S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CONSISTENTLY FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING, THIS
DIURNAL FREEZE AND THAW CYCLE WILL LEAD TO A MELTING SNOWPACK
DURING THE DAY. THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
BY THURSDAY, A SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE MID
OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL SHIFT OUR WINDS TO THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR, KEEPING TEMPERATURES LOCALLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKE
WHILE INLAND AREAS STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S. OUR ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO A MUCH LARGER AND MORE COMPLEX SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER
THE ROCKIES THAT WILL LIFT INTO OUR REGION BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND STARTING FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE, MEANING RAINFALL COULD BE MODERATE AT TIMES WITH
TOTAL AMOUNTS GENERALLY 0.25" WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 0.5"
OF RAIN OR MORE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A DEFORMATION BAND IN THE
REGION WHICH COULD CAUSE TRAINING ADDING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THE NORTHLAND IS IN AN IDEAL LOCATION FOR A
PROLONGED BAND OF PRECIPITATION. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE
LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL QPF. AS A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE
RED RIVER VALLEY LATE FRIDAY, WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT -
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MODELS HIGHLY
SUGGEST THAT MOST OF THE QPF SHOULD HAVE FALLEN BY THE TIME THE
COLD ARRIVES. ALSO, WANTED TO MENTION THAT THE GENERAL TREND FOR
THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TO PULL IT TO THE NORTH AND WEST - KEEPING
US WARMER AND MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOWMELT WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS COULD LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THE COLDER AIR WRAPS IN LATE
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND STILL LOOK TO REBOUND INTO
THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS WILL START OUT MVFR AND WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO IFR
OR LIFR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS WHERE THE STRATUS ARRIVES
LATER. THE CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT COOLING ONCE THEY ARRIVE AND
THEREFORE LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COOL FRONT SLIDES SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS. THE THICKNESS OF THE STRATUS
WILL PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN HOW QUICKLY THE SKIES SCATTER
OUT. SOME OF THE HIGH-RES FORECAST MODELS AND THE NAM SUGGEST
LOW STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
35 KNOTS ARE PRODUCING GALES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING, REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE NEXT HAZARDOUS WAVES AND WINDS WON'T BE
UNTIL THURSDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...WOLFE
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