119
FXUS63 KDLH 031150
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
550 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING MOISTURE AND A DAILY FREEZE/THAW CYCLE WILL LEAD TO
MORNING FOG AND STRATUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ARRIVES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING STARTING FRIDAY. RAIN, MIXED
PRECIPITATION AND A LITTLE SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
EXTENDED WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WAS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST
WERE LEADING TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WAS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS ALSO DEVELOPING AS WELL.
THIS WILL BE THE TREND FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SLOWLY
ERODING AWAY THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE 40S AND 50S WHICH WILL LEAD TO SNOWMELT DURING THE DAY. THIS
WILL THEN ADD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW FOG AND STRATUS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO MINNESOTA TODAY, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT OVER
THE REGION. THIS FRONT MAY HELP LIFT ANY LINGERING FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TODAY, BUT WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT WITH
TEMPERATURES AS THERE ISN'T A STRONG PUSH OF COLDER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
THURSDAY WILL SEE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH
ACROSS MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THIS WILL TURN WINDS EASTERLY
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER AIR WILL
SPREAD INLAND AND SUPPRESS HIGHS INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE REGION. SOME UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA INTO THE ST. CROIX
VALLEY.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND LEAD TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE LEE OF
THE ROCKIES IN EASTERN COLORADO. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT
WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH.
MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SPREADING RAINFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. PWATS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE AND IN EXCESS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
NEAR 1 INCH IN SOME SPOTS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IF A DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPS
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CHANGES THE RAIN OVER THE SNOW. MOST OF THE QPF
LOOKS TO HAVE FALLEN BY THAT POINT, SO NOT MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT
MAY LEAD TO MINOR RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S ON SATURDAY
BEFORE WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MAY BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. THIS LOOKS TO SET UP A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER 30S TO THE NORTH AND LOWER 50S TO
THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
LOW STRATUS IS LEADING TO MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME FOG IS SEEN IN SPOTS, BUT IS VFR AND IS NOT
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. THE STRATUS WILL
BE SLOW TO SCATTER OR LIFT, LIKELY NOT UNTIL MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ANY IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS LOW
STRATUS AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS EVENING AND REMAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 341 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
NO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINDS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THURSDAY WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS THAT MAY LEAD TO CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
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