836
FXUS63 KDLH 190610
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
110 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE (~15%) OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR VERY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR HAYWARD AND PHILLIPS EARLY THIS MORNING.
- CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING MAY
LIMIT HEATING TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OR CLEAR DURING PEAK
HEATING WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
- WIDESPREAD FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT DUE TO SNOW MELT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS. FOG WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE.
- A BETTER ORGANIZED CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
THE SUN IS PEEKING OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN AREAS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2. THOSE AREAS HAVE REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH
A FEW SPOTS HITTING INTO 40S, WHICH FORESHADOWS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. IN THE MEANTIME, A PASSING SYSTEM, ALBEIT WEAK, BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY, WE DO EXPECT LIGHT DRIZZLE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. HAYWARD TO
PARK FALLS HAS ~40 CHANCE OF SEEING LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION OF
0.01", LEADING TO A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON UNTREATED ROADS,
BRIDGES, AND SIDEWALKS. PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT
MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT.
AS WE MOVE INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND AS HINTED ABOVE, MUCH
WARMER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD OUR COLD SNOWPACK, BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR FOG IN THE MORNING. THE FOG MAY BE STUBBORN TO CLEAR
OUT ENTIRELY, BUT WHERE THE SUN DOES BREAK THROUGH, TEMPERATURES
WILL SURGE INTO THE 40S FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
BECOME COMPLICATED DUE TO THE SNOW PACK, WARM AIR, AND FOG. IF
THE FOG DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS, TEMPERATURES MAY BE 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY (CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO BE OUR
WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD). THURSDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE
WILL CLIP THE FORECAST AREA TO THE NORTH, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF GRAND MARAIS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND: ON SATURDAY, MODELS STILL VARY AS
TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM, BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION: THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE AT THE START WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW.
IF PRECIPITATION BEGINS SATURDAY AND CHANGES TO SNOW SATURDAY
NIGHT, LOOK FOR HIGHER TOTALS. IF PRECIPITATION DOESN'T ARRIVE
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING, LOWER TOTALS ARE LIKELY. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, A DRY AND WARMER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
LOW FORECAST CONFIDENCE EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF MVFR
STRATUS WAS LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD OVER DLH AND HYR LATER THIS MORNING.
06Z HIB OBSERVATION FEATURED A CEILING OF 1000FT. IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST. ELSEWHERE THE CLEAR SKIES MAY SUPPORT
FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY RESULT IN
IFR OR LIFR VISIBILITY. THE STRATUS OVER NORTHEAST MN APPEARS
TO BE EXPANDING SLOWLY WESTWARD AS THE CLOUDS DRIFT SOUTH. IF
MVFR/IFR OVERCAST SPREADS TO BRD, VISIBILITY WOULD BE MVFR OR
EVEN VFR. HIB REPORTED A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION AT 06Z. IT'S
HARD TO DETERMINE WHETHER THAT WAS FROM VERY LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR DIRECT DEPOSITION IN THE ABSENCE OF PRECIPITATION.
THE RISK OF VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS LOW, BUT NOT ZERO
(AROUND 10%). FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING WHICH IS ALSO LIMITING CONFIDENCE. THERE ARE TWO
MAIN OUTCOMES. EITHER THE STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND
WOULD THEN PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY OR THE LIFT WILL BE
INSUFFICIENT TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD STRATUS LEAVING RADIATIONAL
FOG AS THE ONLY CONCERN DURING THE DAY. I KEPT A MORE
PESSIMISTIC FORECAST FOR NOW. LLWS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRIFT PAST THE NORTHLAND IN ONTARIO AND
MAY PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AT INL THIS EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING AND WIDESPREAD FOG WILL DEVELOP
AFTER 20.00Z AND MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
WINDS VEER WESTERLY THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR GRAND MARAIS TO GRAND PORTAGE. WAVES WILL SUBSIDE
TO 1 TO 3 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEXT PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LR
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...LR
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