323
FXUS63 KDLH 192005
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
POTENTIALLY CREATING SLICK SPOTS FRIDAY MORNING.
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THE TABLE. A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE FREEZE LINE SETS UP AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
MESSY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THIS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.
A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LAYER DICTATING WHETHER WE SEE
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, OR FREEZING RAIN. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY ABOVE FREEZING, THIS WILL SIMPLY FALL AS RAIN. IF FREEZING
RAIN DOES OCCUR, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON ELEVATED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. WIDESPREAD FOG,
SOME LOCALLY DENSE, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZES.
FOG MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WE WILL
SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG CAN CLEAR. A MORE
COMPLEX AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY POSITION THE FREEZING
LINE SOMEWHERE IN THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLANDS. ALL TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. SHOWERS
WILL START AS RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL
HEAVILY DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES OVER. THOSE WHO SEE MOSTLY SNOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS, GENERALLY TOTALING AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE TERRAIN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF WHEREVER
THE FREEZE LINE EVENTUALLY LANDS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS GLAZE OF ICE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL, HOVERING MUCH
CLOSER TO FREEZING THAN THIS PAST WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND AND INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR MESSY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT DLH AND LATER HIB WITH MVFR
CEILINGS. LLWS WILL ALSO AFFECT HIB, HYR, AND BRD BETWEEN 00-09Z
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IFR
TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. HIB IS MORE UNCERTAIN IN THE
MODELS, BUT STILL GAVE IT A TEMPO DUE TO HOW OFTEN WE SEE FOG
FORM THERE UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A MARINE FOG THREAT
EXISTS TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER LAKE WATERS,
WHICH COULD DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NAUTICAL MILE IN SOME
AREAS. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY, BRINGING BUILDING
WAVES AND STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML
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