274
FXUS63 KDLH 200554
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THE TABLE. A GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE
WHERE THE FREEZE LINE SETS UP AND 1 TO 4 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 2.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
MESSY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN SOUTHEAST MANITOBA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THIS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EXPECT A VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES.
A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MIXED PRECIPITATION, WITH THE
DEPTH OF THE SURFACE FREEZING LAYER DICTATING WHETHER WE SEE
SNOW, ICE PELLETS, OR FREEZING RAIN. IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STAY ABOVE FREEZING, THIS WILL SIMPLY FALL AS RAIN. IF FREEZING
RAIN DOES OCCUR, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE COULD LEAD TO SLIPPERY
CONDITIONS ON ELEVATED OR UNTREATED SURFACES. WIDESPREAD FOG,
SOME LOCALLY DENSE, IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT DUE TO
INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE FROM ONGOING SNOWMELT AND SOUTHERLY
BREEZES.
FOG MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. WE WILL
SEE A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG CAN CLEAR. A MORE
COMPLEX AND DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND.
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THE SATURDAY SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, THOUGH GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY POSITION THE FREEZING
LINE SOMEWHERE IN THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLANDS. ALL TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WEEKEND SYSTEM. SHOWERS
WILL START AS RAIN FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX AND SNOW OVERNIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL
HEAVILY DEPEND ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THE PRECIPITATION
CHANGES OVER. THOSE WHO SEE MOSTLY SNOW WILL HAVE THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS, GENERALLY TOTALING AN INCH OR TWO. HOWEVER,
ISOLATED SNOW AMOUNTS UP TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE TERRAIN DUE TO OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. A PERIOD OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF WHEREVER
THE FREEZE LINE EVENTUALLY LANDS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A
HAZARDOUS GLAZE OF ICE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL, HOVERING MUCH
CLOSER TO FREEZING THAN THIS PAST WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND AND INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK AS WELL, BRINGING MORE
CHANCES FOR MESSY, WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHLAND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED THE LOW-
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. A CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AT 06Z
AND WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS STRONGER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT. BRD
HAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS OF 0530Z WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW
ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHLAND.
THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE VISIBILITIES. MEANWHILE
AN AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WAS OBSERVED IN SURFACE OBS AND GOES-
EAST NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THAT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHERLY AND
AFFECT INL, HIB, AND DLH. THE GOES-EAST IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS AN
AREA OF THIN STRATUS NEAR DLH, DYT, SUW WEST PAST COQ AND NORTH
PAST HIB AND EVM. WHILE THE STRATUS IS TOO THIN TO BE REPORTED
BY THE CEILOMETERS, IT MAY THICKEN INTO FOG OR LOW CEILINGS. THE
LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING SOUTHWEST TONIGHT. A MARINE FOG THREAT
EXISTS TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER LAKE WATERS,
WHICH COULD DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 NAUTICAL MILE IN SOME
AREAS. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES SATURDAY, BRINGING BUILDING
WAVES AND STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT MAY BECOME
HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...KML
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