295
FXUS63 KDLH 200847
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY WITH HIGHS 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES ON THE TABLE. SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE
LOW AND ARE FAR FROM CERTAIN. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AND A ROLLER COASTER OF TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT MESSY WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
OVERVIEW...
THE NORTHLAND REMAINS UNDER A BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH A
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. (BAROCLINICITY IS A
"NOTABLE" HORIZONTAL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THROUGH SOME PORTION
OF THE ATMOSPHERE.) THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VACILLATING
TEMPERATURES FROM DAY TO DAY AND FREQUENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
EARLY THIS MORNING AND TODAY...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z.
AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS,
THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AND THIN CLOUD LAYER WILL ALLOW ADEQUATE
SURFACE HEATING TO MIX OUT THE CLOUDS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER BATCH LOW STRATUS IS UPSTREAM OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO
AND EASTERN MANITOBA WHICH MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING. THAT AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD MIX OUT AS WELL.
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE AS WINDS VEER
NORTHWESTERLY WITH THE LOW PULLING AWAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S IN THE EASTERN ARROWHEAD
TO THE UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL
SEE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. THE HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE RIPENING OF THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE REGION.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THE ADDITIONAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT PATCHY AREAS OF
FOG TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER MAY
KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
FORECASTING FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN DIFFICULT THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS AND TONIGHT PROMISES TO BE NO DIFFERENT.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE ARROWHEAD TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES REVEAL A
DEEP WARM NOSE ALOFT WHICH CREATES UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
TYPES. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND SNOW ARE ALL
POSSIBLE. THERE IS SOME GOOD NEWS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REGARDLESS OF TYPE WILL BE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THERE WILL
BE LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS.
MODEL PROFILES SHOW A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES AND ARE ALSO
DEPENDENT ON LOCATION. NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY AND MOST OF COOK
COUNTY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. THE CHANCE
OF RAIN INCREASES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. SNOW AND FREEZING
RAIN CHANCES DWINDLE IN FAVOR OF RAIN BY LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERALL WILL DIMINISH
SATURDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. POTENTIAL ICE ACCUMULATION IS
GREATEST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE NORTH SHORE WHERE THERE'S
A 10-20% CHANCE OF UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE
ACCUMULATION. THE ODDS OF SEEING ANY ICE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
RANGE FROM AS HIGH AS 80% IN THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF GRAND
MARAIS TO 60% TO ISABELLA AND SILVER BAY TO 40% AT TWO HARBORS
TO 10-20% NEAR DULUTH.
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS AS WELL. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON SNOW DENSITY AND
ACCUMULATION. THE 20.00Z MODEL SUITE IS TRENDING WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DATA. AS SUCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
DIMINISHED WITH THIS FORECAST THOUGH THEY MIGHT GO BACK UP IF
THE SYSTEM WOBBLES SOUTH AGAIN. HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN BETWEEN GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND PORTAGE. THOSE SNOW
AMOUNTS DWINDLE TO A DUSTING NEAR DULUTH AND VIRGINIA.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
COLDER AIR WILL ADVANCE INTO THE NORTHLAND AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE OF
LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD FALL
AS SNOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. STUBBORN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 10-20% DWELL OVER THE ARROWHEAD
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
NEGLIGIBLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...
THE WAVY PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND
A LITTLE WARMER ON MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THAT WAVE WILL BRING A 10-30% CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.
A MORE POTENT SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASED THE LOW-
LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. A CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AT 06Z
AND WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS STRONGER THAN NORMAL OVERNIGHT. BRD
HAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS OF 0530Z WHICH SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW
ADVANCES TO THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHLAND. THE
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE VISIBILITIES. MEANWHILE AN
AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WAS OBSERVED IN SURFACE OBS AND GOES- EAST
NIGHT MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.
THAT AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTHERLY AND AFFECT INL,
HIB, AND DLH. THE GOES-EAST IMAGERY ALSO REVEALS AN AREA OF THIN
STRATUS NEAR DLH, DYT, SUW WEST PAST COQ AND NORTH PAST HIB AND
EVM. WHILE THE STRATUS IS TOO THIN TO BE REPORTED BY THE
CEILOMETERS, IT MAY THICKEN INTO FOG OR LOW CEILINGS. THE LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY. A
FAST- MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
EAST AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 30 KNOTS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WAVES
BUILDING TO 3 TO 8 FEET. THE HIGHEST WAVES WILL BE FROM THE
OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS TO SAXON HARBOR. THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE
OF LOW END GALES TO AROUND 35 KNOTS NEAR GRAND MARAIS AND GRAND
PORTAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE REMAINING NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING NEAR GRAND MARAIS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS AND GALES TO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK
MARINE...HUYCK
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