251
FXUS63 KDLH 202337
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MESSY WINTRY SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. A TRACE TO ONE INCH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, HIGHEST
NEAR GRAND PORTAGE.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND ICE PELLETS LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN COULD LEAVE A LIGHT ICE GLAZE, LEADING TO HAZARDOUS
MORNING DRIVING CONDITIONS.
- A COLDER AIR MASS ARRIVES SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE
PATTERN OF CLIPPERS BRINGING MORE MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS SET TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK
HIT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
FORECAST MODELS HAVE TRENDED NOTABLY WARMER WITH THIS SYSTEM. WARM
AIR HAS PUSHED FURTHER NORTH, WHICH HAS DRASTICALLY LOWERED OUR
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR A LONGER DURATION
BEFORE EVENTUALLY LOWERING SATURDAY NIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS, WE
ANTICIPATE A LONGER PERIOD OF RAIN BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
SWITCHES OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW.
A PERSISTENT WARM LAYER OF AIR ALOFT WILL COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION
TYPES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD, WE EXPECT TO SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND
ICE PELLETS. ONCE THE COLDER AIR FINALLY SCOURS OUT THE WARM
NOSE, PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. HOWEVER, A DRY POCKET
OF AIR IN THE MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. EXPECT A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS OF LIQUID FOR THE IRON RANGE, THE ARROWHEAD, AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE A
TRACE, WITH UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE NEAR GRAND PORTAGE. A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE IS ALSO EXPECTED WHEREVER FREEZING RAIN OCCURS.
BY SUNDAY, A RELATIVELY COLDER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT FORTY
DEGREES OR LOWER. THIS CHILL WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS A BRIEF
WARM UP ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES IN
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER FORTIES. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
PARADE OF CLIPPERS. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT ALONG A
COLD FRONT, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM EARLY WEDNESDAY
WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ONCE AGAIN. BOTH OF THESE CLIPPERS WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT, MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING. A
CLIPPER WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND BRING MVFR CEILINGS TO DLH,
HIB, AND INL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN TO INL
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MID-MORNING. VSBYS MAY FALL TO
MVFR DURING THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY. IFR CEILINGS ARE THEN EXPECTED
AT INL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS MAY REACH HIB
AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE UNDER 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BRD AND HYR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DETERIORATE THIS WEEKEND AS A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE REGION. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ACROSS
MOST NEARSHORE ZONES AND WAVES BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY. THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE WATERS OFF
SAXON HARBOR COULD SEE WAVES BUILDING TO 4 TO 8 FEET. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND
AROUND AND EAST OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...KML
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