478
FXUS63 KDLH 211124
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER WILL BRING TWO ROUNDS OF WINTRY MIX TO
THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD RESULT FROM LIGHT SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING AND NEAR THE SOUTH
SHORE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- SUNDAY COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE ARROWHEAD,
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED TO
BE DRY, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE IF RECENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS A COUPLE
CLIPPERS MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO FOLLOW A TREND OF ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS DURING THE DAY AND
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS AT NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF THIS
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LOW PRESSURE, CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WESTERN ND, WILL BE QUICKLY
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY. PRECIPITATION OCCURRING
ALONG A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PASSING CLIPPER IS FORECAST
TO BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING, WITH THE
SOUTHERN GRADIENT OF PRECIP BEING AROUND US-2. DESPITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITY INCREASING IN THE BORDERLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING,
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL REPORT DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SFC. HI-RES
MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A NOTABLE DRY LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WHICH
IS INHIBITING THIS PRECIPITATION ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER, THE EXPECTATION IS THAT ONCE THE LOW-LEVELS SATURATE LATER
THIS MORNING, A WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN.
PRECIPITATION TYPE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO BE FAIRLY MESSY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. MODELS STRONGLY SUGGEST A
WARM NOSE ABOVE FREEZING EXPANDING ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA BY
THE TIME SATURATION THROUGH THE PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AT THE
SURFACE, TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND, IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW,
FREEZING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ABOVE TWO HARBORS, IN COOK COUNTY,
AND PORTIONS OF INTERIOR LAKE COUNTY. THIS THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP
IS CONDUCIVE FOR FREEZING RAIN DEVELOPMENT AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE (75% CHANCE) FOR AT
LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE OCCURRING BY LATE MORNING, AND A 25% CHANCE
FOR ICE AMOUNTS OF 0.1".
IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THE THERMAL PROFILE THIS MORNING IS VERY
CLOSE TO FREEZING AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO OF VARIATION IN THE
WARMER DIRECTION COULD RESULT IN THIS LARGELY FALLING AS RAIN. OPTED
AGAINST ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS MORNING FREEZING
RAIN, AS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY MELT ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION TO ICE CONCERNS
THIS MORNING, WET ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 3" OR LESS IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING IN COOK COUNTY. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND GRAND
PORTAGE, WHERE THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AROUND MIDDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON, THERE WILL BE A LULL IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THIS
LULL WILL BE BRIEF THOUGH AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF
WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS UNDER 0.5" ALONG/NORTH OF US-2 IN
NORTHWEST WI AND A POTENTIAL GLAZE OF ICE IN IRON AND SOUTHERN
ASHLAND COUNTIES. EXPECT PRECIP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE
CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS GENERALLY FAVORED
TO DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH ON SUNDAY EVENING COULD BRING LIGHT SNOWFALL. RUN-TO-
RUN VARIATION HASN'T BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS SIGNAL, SO KEPT THE DRY
POPS FROM THE NBM IN THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, IF
MODEL TRENDS HOLD, THEN THIS WOULD BE ONE POTENTIAL CHANGE THAT
WOULD BE NEEDED.
HEADING INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEK, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A SERIES OF CLIPPERS MOVE THROUGH.
A FEW NOTABLE TIME PERIODS THAT COULD BE SEEING PRECIPITATION FROM
THESE CLIPPERS IS MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED
TO MAINTAIN A DIURNAL TREND OF WARMING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY
AND THEN DECREASING BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS
UPCOMING WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN MESSY P-TYPES AND PLACE
IMPORTANCE ON TIMING FOR WHETHER OR NOT A LOCATION WILL SEE MORE
RAIN VERSUS SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. AT THE TERMINALS WE WILL SEE SOME LIGHT
RAIN AT TIMES WITH THIS MORNING WAVE AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF LIGHT RAIN LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SEE AN ABRUPT
CHANGE IN DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON CHANGING FROM OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO OUT OF THE NORTH.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 153 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ON WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER.
HOWEVER, EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KNOTS ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE ZONES AND WAVES BUILDING IN EXCESS OF
4 FEET AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS AND THE WATERS OFF SAXON HARBOR COULD SEE WAVES
BUILDING UP TO 8 FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR THE NORTH SHORE AND AROUND AND EAST OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA
STARTING TONIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...UNRUH
AVIATION...BRITT
MARINE...UNRUH
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