303
FXUS63 KDLH 211925
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
225 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATE WITH POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED SNOW BAND NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH OSCILLATING WARM
AND COOL TEMPERATURES, WITH LIGHT LIQUID AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPRINKLED THROUGH THE FORECAST. MAYBE
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED TUE/WED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ABOUT A 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH THE FIRST 70S OF THE SEASON DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTH;
MEANWHILE, THE NORTH IS MELTING OUT FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S.
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS
AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR MOST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, A FRONTOGENESIS BAND TRAILING THE COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, A CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, MAKING LOCALIZED ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE TWIN PORTS AND DOWN THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
BE MOST FAVORED FOR THIS LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE LAKE EARLY IN THE
DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN, LEADING TO DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, THOUGH THE EXACT
SPECIFICS REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN. WE WILL SEE AN OSCILLATION
BETWEEN WARM AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE NEXT
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES TUE/WED AS A LARGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/S CROSS THE NORTHLAND BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS GIVING 1-4" WHILE
THE EURO CAMP IS MORE LIKE <1". EITHER WAY, SNOW PROBABILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TRENDING UPWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ONE ROUND OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXITS AND THE NEXT ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON WITH JUST A SMALL BREAK FOR VFR IN BETWEEN. BIG SHIFT
IN WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TRIED TO ADD SOME EXTRA BREAK
POINTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF FOR THAT. MORE IFR AND LIGHT
PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE LAKE SUPERIOR INDUCED
CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR KDLH WHICH MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME MORE -SN
AND IFR CIGS LONGER THAN OTHER LOCATIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, WHERE OCCASIONAL 9 FOOT
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>142-147-
148-150.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ143>146.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...WOLFE
MARINE...WOLFE
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