450
FXUS63 KDLH 212344
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT AND TRANSITION TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATE WITH POSSIBLY A LOCALIZED SNOW BAND NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WITH OSCILLATING WARM
AND COOL TEMPERATURES, WITH LIGHT LIQUID AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPRINKLED THROUGH THE FORECAST. MAYBE
SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED TUE/WED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
ABOUT A 40 DEGREE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
WITH THE FIRST 70S OF THE SEASON DRAPED ACROSS OUR SOUTH;
MEANWHILE, THE NORTH IS MELTING OUT FROM A COUPLE OF INCHES OF
SNOW FROM THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 30S.
A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS TO TRANSITION INTO A WINTRY MIX AND EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS
AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH WITH WINDS TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST FOR MOST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, A FRONTOGENESIS BAND TRAILING THE COLD FRONT
WILL INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. IN ADDITION, A CONVERGENCE BAND IS EXPECTED TO SET UP
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, MAKING LOCALIZED ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE TWIN PORTS AND DOWN THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL
BE MOST FAVORED FOR THIS LOCALIZED LAKE ENHANCED SNOW ACTIVITY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S ACROSS OUR REGION. WHILE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAY LINGER IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE LAKE EARLY IN THE
DAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN, LEADING TO DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, THOUGH THE EXACT
SPECIFICS REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN. WE WILL SEE AN OSCILLATION
BETWEEN WARM AND COOL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. THE NEXT
DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES TUE/WED AS A LARGER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE/S CROSS THE NORTHLAND BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION. THE GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH WITH THIS GIVING 1-4" WHILE
THE EURO CAMP IS MORE LIKE <1". EITHER WAY, SNOW PROBABILITIES
WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE TRENDING UPWARD.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
LOW STRATUS IS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN MN THIS EVENING, WITH
WINDS INCREASING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
EXPECT LOW END MVFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH
OCCASIONAL LOWERING TO IFR. WIND GUSTS OF 20-28KTS ARE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION STRETCHES
FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN WESTWARD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. SO
FAR, DRY LOW LEVELS HAVE PREVENTED PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING
THE GROUND. WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTENING OVERNIGHT, THERE IS LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS. CIGS
IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DECREASING WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
BY SUNDAY MORNING, ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP IS POSSIBLE WITH A
POSSIBLE LAKE SUPERIOR INDUCED CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR KDLH WHICH
MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME -SN AND IFR CIGS LONGER THAN OTHER
LOCATIONS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO
25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS PERSISTENT FETCH WILL
CAUSE WAVES TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE AND THE OUTER APOSTLE ISLANDS, WHERE OCCASIONAL 9 FOOT
WAVES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WINDS AND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ140>142-147-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...WOLFE
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...WOLFE
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