336
FXUS63 KDLH 222022
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A 40 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IN THE
ARROWHEAD.
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUB-
ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BORDERLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE NORTHLAND REMAIN COOL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WHILE EARLY MORNING
FLURRIES HAVE LARGELY TAPERED OFF, THE CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
PERSISTENTLY DRAPED OVER ALL BUT THE ARROWHEAD REGION. SKIES
WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THIS
EVENING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUNSHINE BEFORE DUSK FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE AND A RETURN TO MILDER TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON, HELPING HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF AS A FAST- MOVING
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER SYSTEM FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS OF NE/SE WY, THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS CURRENTLY FOCUSED
ON THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD, WHERE CHANCES FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES
ARE IN THAT 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE.
DRIER BUT MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA, BRINGING A POOL
OF COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES INTO THE AREA. FOR
NOW WE HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE NBM FORECAST, BUT SHOULD WE
MANAGE TO CLEAR OUT UNDERNEATH THAT RIDGE FOR FRIDAY OR SATURDAY
MORNING, OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT IN TIME THAT PROBABILITY IS ONLY 30
PERCENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CONDITIONS REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND, THOUGH THEY ARE SLOWLY, SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTH, AND I
EXPECT KHIB, KDLH AND KINL TO BREAK OUT TO VFR BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER FOR THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH KBRD AND KHYR, THOUGH HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE OPTIMISTIC
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CLOUDS MAY LIFT TO LOW END VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS ONCE THEY DO CLEAR FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY DROPPING BELOW 10KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND DROPPING BELOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 03Z.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH SHORE AND OUTER
APOSTLE ISLANDS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED OFF TO LESS THAN 15 KTS, BUT WAVES OF 3 TO 5
FEET ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. THERE WILL BE
A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KTS MONDAY NIGHT, BUT
THESE DECREASE AGAIN AND TURN NORTHERLY FOR TUESDAY. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE AND WAVES BUILD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ147-
148-150.
DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...LE
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