005
FXUS63 KDLH 231136
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER BRINGS A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IN THE
ARROWHEAD.
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUB-
ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BORDERLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
BEHIND AN EXITING WEAK CLIPPER, FLURRIES ARE FALLING FROM AREAS
OF STRATUS, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF DRY AIR SHIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY, WITH RHS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FIRST ARRIVES THIS EVENING,
AS A WEAK CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG AND INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MOISTURE ALOFT, DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR LINGERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CURB PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE IRON
RANGE, AND LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. A WEAK WARM NOSE ALOFT AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX
AS PRECIPITATION STARTS THIS EVENING, WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD. FURTHER SOUTH, A WINTRY MIX IS MORE
LIKELY, AND GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS, PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD BE LIMITED TO
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
BE JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE
BORDERLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ARROWHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING
ON WIND FLOW OFF THE LAKE, THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
MINIMAL. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS OVER ON THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD,
WHERE CHANCES FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE IN THAT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SUB-ZERO TEMPS OVER THE BORDERLANDS, BUT THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST. AFTER A DAY WITH HIGHS
IN UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
AN AREA OF STRATUS IS MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM NEAR INL TO DLH THIS
MORNING, WITH CIGS AROUND 3KFT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT HIB AND DLH
TO START THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT BY
16Z. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES UNDER THE STRATUS, BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DRIER AIR ARRIVES TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLIPPER ARRIVES TONIGHT, AND LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW WILL
RETURN TO THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH VFR CIGS. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS
POSSIBLE AT DLH TONIGHT, AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE CLIPPER.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK, QUICKLY MOVING CLIPPER.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
TONIGHT, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AND TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE AND WAVES BUILD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
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