175
FXUS63 KDLH 231732
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER BRINGS A WINTRY MIX TO THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT TRAVEL ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 OR MORE INCHES IN THE
ARROWHEAD.
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SUB-
ZERO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE BORDERLANDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
BEHIND AN EXITING WEAK CLIPPER, FLURRIES ARE FALLING FROM AREAS
OF STRATUS, MAINLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE DIMINISHING AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. AN AXIS OF DRY AIR SHIFTS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY, WITH RHS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT FOR A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACTIVE WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK. THIS FIRST ARRIVES THIS EVENING,
AS A WEAK CLIPPER QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG AND INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO. LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH ONLY WEAK MOISTURE
RETURN TO THE NORTHLAND. ALTHOUGH THERE IS MOISTURE ALOFT, DRIER
LOW LEVEL AIR LINGERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL CURB PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF THE IRON
RANGE, AND LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS. A WEAK WARM NOSE ALOFT AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL ALLOW FOR A WINTRY MIX
AS PRECIPITATION STARTS THIS EVENING, WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD. FURTHER SOUTH, A WINTRY MIX IS MORE
LIKELY, AND GIVEN THE DRIER LOW LEVELS, PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN COULD BE LIMITED TO
SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
THE NEXT WAVE ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT WILL
BE JUST TO OUR NORTH, WITH PRECIPITATION LIMITED TO THE
BORDERLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND ARROWHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING
ON WIND FLOW OFF THE LAKE, THERE COULD BE SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
MINIMAL. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW REMAINS OVER ON THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD,
WHERE CHANCES FOR 2 OR MORE INCHES ARE IN THAT 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE.
DRIER AND COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWS
FRIDAY MORNING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SUB-ZERO TEMPS OVER THE BORDERLANDS, BUT THE STRONGER
COLD ADVECTION REMAINS TO OUR NORTHEAST. AFTER A DAY WITH HIGHS
IN UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS BY SUNDAY WILL BE BACK IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AT INL, ALL
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF DURATION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO GENERALLY 060-100
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN SITES, HENCE
DLH/HIB/INL THIS EVENING, BUT PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. GRADUAL CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED
FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
AS FOR WINDS, BREEZY/GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL SETTLE DOWN UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE WESTERLY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY-TO-LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE ESE 5-10KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS MORNING AND BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK, QUICKLY MOVING CLIPPER.
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20-25 KTS
TONIGHT, AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MIGHT BE NEEDED. WINDS
DECREASE AGAIN AND TURN NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
INCREASE AND WAVES BUILD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...JPC/WFO MPX
MARINE...HA
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