184
FXUS63 KDLH 231926
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
226 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MIX OF RAIN & SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER.
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS UNDER 1" POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN & SNOW POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN & CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN.
- UP & DOWN TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH THIS WEEK & THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR MINNESOTA & NORTHWEST WISCONSIN:
--------------------------------------------------------
COOL TODAY WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION,
BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN RIGHT AROUND LATE MARCH NORMALS WITH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S. A WEAK DISTURBANCE SKIRTING ALONG THE THE US-CANADA BORDER
WILL GENERATE ALIGHT WINTRY MIX OF RAIN & SNOW ACROSS FAR-
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST
5000+ FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN JUST SPRINKLES, IF
ANYTHING, FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF MN & NORTHERN WI. A
SLUSHY DUSTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE US-CANADA BORDER,
BUT MORE RAIN IS LIKELY VS SNOW.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS PRONOUNCED RIDGING RETURNS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN US &
BUILDS NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
HIGHLIGHTS TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S-50S ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA & WISCONSIN, BUT WARMING INTO THE 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
& SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN REACH THE LOW 70S
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA IF WARM DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE IS MAXIMIZED.
THE RIDGING BECOMES SUPPRESSED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A
150+ KTS JETSTREAK BEGINS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE CONUS, ALLOWING ANOTHER INTRUSION OF COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A SWATH OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT RAIN & SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN & CENTRAL MINNESOTA & NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT & EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT AGAIN ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO A SLUSHY DUSTING. ONLY EXPECTING TO SEE
TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON & FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES RISE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, BUT ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS YET AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE BROAD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US, BLOCKING THE FLOW OF ANY
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. A PLEASANT EARLY-SPRING WEEKEND LOOKS
IN STORE WITH SUNNY SKIES & ABOVE-NROMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
TO 50S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA & 50S-60S ACROSS CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. DETERMINISTIC & ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMING MUCH MORE ACTIVE BEYOND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS GENERAL TROUGHING REPLACES THE STRONG RIDGING OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT AT INL, ALL
TAF SITES EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TAF DURATION.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL STEADILY FILTER IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO GENERALLY 060-100
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW STRAY FLURRIES/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN SITES, HENCE
DLH/HIB/INL THIS EVENING, BUT PRECIP WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND NOT
EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY ISSUES. GRADUAL CLEARING IS THEN EXPECTED
FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
AS FOR WINDS, BREEZY/GUSTY SW WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WILL SETTLE DOWN UNDER 10KTS TONIGHT WHILE VEERING MORE WESTERLY
AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN GO
LIGHT/VARIABLE DURING THE EARLY-TO-LATE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY
BEFORE PICKING UP FROM THE ESE 5-10KTS.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10-15KT RANGE WILL PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK, QUICKLY MOVING CLIPPER. THERE
WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS
THIS EVENING BUT NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE SCA'S AT THIS TIME.
WINDS DECREASE AGAIN AND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN E TO NE WINDS
INCREASE AND WAVES BUILD. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA/WFO MPX
AVIATION...JPC/WFO MPX
MARINE...JPC/WFO MPX
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