541
FXUS63 KDLH 251135
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX EXPECTED THIS MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF THE
IRON RANGE, WITH UP TO 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL AND A LIGHT GLAZE
POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION, MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
RETURNS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A WINTRY MIX
EXPECTED FOR THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTH SHORE.
- WARM AND DRIER TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
WARM FRONT IS LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND SEEING WEAK
PRECIPITATION RETURNS ALONG AND NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. WITH A DRY LAYER AT THE SURFACE, PRECIPITATION IS
HAVING A HARD TIME MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE, AND ONLY SEE A
COUPLE OB SITES/AREA WEB CAMS PICKING UP PRECIPITATION. THAT LOW
LEVEL JET IS ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA, WITH A WARM
NOSE STRENGTHENING ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MELTING AND POSSIBLE WINTRY MIXES. THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE, WHERE SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE
LAKE WILL HELP WITH UPLIFT. AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW, WITH LESS THAN
1 INCH OF SNOW. WITH THAT WARM NOSE, CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT
GLAZE IN A SPOTS IN THE ARROWHEAD WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE BELOW
FREEZING.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TODAY, AS
THIS WAVE MOVES TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST WI THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO THE
LOWER 40S AT THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. TONIGHT, THE NEXT WAVE
ARRIVES WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS
TOWARD THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD AS
HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADS WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT, STARTING OUT AS RAIN FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE ARROWHEAD AND THE NORTH SHORE,
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING FREEZING
RAIN. WILL CARRY A LIGHT GLAZE AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 0.10
INCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW QUICKLY THE WARM NOSE ERODES WITH THE
COLUMN COOLING AS LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION (A WINTRY MIX) TO THE ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING, WITH
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS AT FORECAST TERMINALS. VFR CIGS FOR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10KTS THIS MORNING BECOME SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20KTS.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL WINDS, LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING AT DLH, AND AGAIN TONIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA, MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO
THIS AREA TONIGHT, WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ARRIVING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 148 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY TODAY, BUT REMAIN AT 15
KNOTS OR LESS. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20KTS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE (20-30%) OF WINDS REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA
THURSDAY ALONG PARTS OF THE NORTH SHORE. OTHERWISE, NO HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA
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