858
FXUS63 KDLH 100811
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS FOR TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SEVERAL ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. WITH OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS
ALONG WITH MELTING SNOW, MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THERE IS ALSO SOME CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EAST INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
TODAY - TONIGHT:
SOME LOW STRATUS INTO VERY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY
SCATTER/CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY WILL GRADUALLY EXIT EAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING, KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY. EXPECT MAINLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP TODAY
ALONG WITH SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
TURNING MORE MILD IN THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR THE IRON RANGE AND
AREAS NORTH AS WELL AS LOCATIONS IMMEDIATELY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR,
AND UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FREEZE-THAW CYCLE CONTINUES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS
TO LOW 20S NORTH AND 20S TO AROUND 30F SOUTH, WHICH WILL LEAD
TO SOME GRADUAL MELT FROM THE REMAINING SNOWPACK AND REFREEZE
OVERNIGHT AGAIN.
PRECIP ROUND 1 - SATURDAY PM THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
AMPLE WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION BEGINS DAYTIME SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRONG FETCH
OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARDS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH
LOWS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT INITIALLY
DRY AS IT WILL TAKE THE THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN TIME TO SATURATE.
THE NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS SOME LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. WE WILL
STILL SEE MID AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STILL IN PLACE DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND
HEAVIER INTENSITY SHOULD NOT BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD UNTIL THE
DEEPER SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD ALSO BE ACROSS NW WI IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WARM FRONT AND BEST FRONTOGENESIS. GIVEN FORECAST PWATS
AROUND 1.25", THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH TO
AID IN PRECIPITATION RATES FOR NW WI.
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH ND AND NORTHERN MN
DAYTIME SUNDAY, THE ATTENDANT WARM FRONT WILL ALSO SURGE NORTH,
LEAVING A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS THE TIMING OF A
COLD FRONT FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BE INFLUENCED BY HOW LONG THE WARM-ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS
LINGER OVER THE NORTHLAND. SHOULD THERE BE SOME RESIDENCE TIME
OF CLEARING/SOME SUNSHINE IN THE WARM SECTOR DAYTIME SUNDAY, WE
COULD SEE ENOUGH WARMING OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO LOW/MID
70S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND EROSION OF THE CAPPING
INVERSION TO PRODUCE SURFACE- BASED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AS OF NOW THE AREAS OF POTENTIAL
TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE TIME OF POTENTIAL STORM
INITIATION ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-2 CORRIDOR IN MN
THROUGH THE 4-7 PM TIMEFRAME DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL IN THE I-35
CORRIDOR TO NW WI. SHOULD THE CAPPING INVERSION BREAK, WE DO
HAVE A CONDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WITH
PRIMARILY A STRONG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREATS. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW IN EXACT LOCATIONS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE POTENTIAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORM THREATS AS THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE
CAPPING INVERSION HOLDS AND THUNDERSTORMS DON'T DEVELOP.
PRECIP ROUND 2 - MONDAY PM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY:
AS THE SURFACE LOW EXITS TO OUR NORTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS POISED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT ANOTHER WARM FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI VICINITY BY MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF NW WI, WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE NORTHLAND FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI MONDAY EVENING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGEST FRONTOGENESIS.
SHOULD THE FRONT TRACK ANY FARTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST, WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS AND ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING IN THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO NW WI. SHOULD THE
FRONT REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, THE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH. MOST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ROUND ENDING TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS HAVE TRENDED EVEN WARMER FOR MONDAY NIGHT TO
TUESDAY, SO PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHLAND SHOULD REMAIN AS
RAIN AND LARGELY LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO MIX IN IN FAR
NORTHERN MN.
PRECIP ROUND 3 - LATE TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY:
MORE SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME AS ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS ALSO BEEN WARMER, SO
MOST PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO FALL AS RAIN WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, THOUGH SOME LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MN ARROWHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS SYSTEM AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT IS FAVORED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA AT
THIS TIME, BUT COULD CHANGE IF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH. SOME
OF THE SLOWER MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOULD
ALSO HAVE PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO LATE WEDNESDAY, AS WELL.
OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION HAVE NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH AREAS HAVING
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL BEING FROM THE LAKE MILLE LACS AREA
TO THE NORTH SHORE AND AREAS EAST INTO NW WI. PROBABILITIES ARE
HIGHEST IN NW WI WHERE THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS AND HEAVIER
RAINFALL ARE MORE FAVORED TO REPEATEDLY MOVE THROUGH.
PROBABILITIES FOR 2" OF RAIN OR GREATER ARE 30-60% IN SAWYER AND
PRICE COUNTIES, THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS IN MUCH OF NW WI AND ARE HARD TO PINPOINT
AT THIS TIME. LOOK FOR LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH
NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHERN MN.
WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING FROM
SATURDAY STRAIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, SNOWMELT ALONG WITH
LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON REMAINING SNOWPACK CREATE CONCERN FOR
MINOR AREAL AND RIVER/STREAM FLOODING, ESPECIALLY FOR BASINS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE IN NW WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXTENDED INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOW PRESSURE WAS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WINDS WERE
DIMINISHING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS THE HIGH CONTINUED TO BUILD
IN. LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WERE EVIDENT ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
BUT NOTHING WAS REACHING THE GROUND WITH DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE
REGION. THIS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. KEPT MINIMAL CHANCES ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER INTO THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN WAVE PASSES THROUGH, BUT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES IS UNLIKELY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL
REACH INTO THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S.
AS THE HIGH SLIDES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY, RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS FEATURES A GULF CONNECTION BRINGING AMPLE
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH LOWS REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DRY
AIR AT THE SURFACE AND LINGERING RIDGING ALOFT, SO PRECIPITATION
MAY NOT BEGIN UNTIL OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THIS FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WHERE THIS FRONT ENDS UP WILL
BE A MAIN FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. RIGHT NOW THIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN, PERHAPS ALONG THE I-94
CORRIDOR. MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ZONES MAY BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. HIGHS SUNDAY
WILL BE IN THE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WITH 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.
AFTER A BREAK DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT A WARM FRONT INTO THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 09.12Z
SUITE OF MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THIS SECOND SYSTEM A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH, KEEPING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
MODELS HAVE ALSO TRENDED WARMER FOR THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIME
FRAME, WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TO MORE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH PERHAPS SOME PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH SHORE. MODELS VARY IN MOVING
THIS SECOND SYSTEM OUT OF THE AREA, BUT PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IF THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS VERIFY. COMBINING
THE TWO SYSTEMS RESULTS IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
FROM THE LAKE MILLE LACS AREA TO THE NORTH SHORE AND EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN, INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTY
AREAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. WITH
THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
TOP OF THE SNOWPACK, MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ACROSS SOME OF THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE BASINS ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND A BIT COOLER
STARTING MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND THEN 40S AND
50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS IN STRATUS DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT
HOURS, BUT CEILINGS RETURN TO VFR AND EVEN SEE SOME SCATTERING
OUT OF CLOUDS FROM NW TO SE INTO THIS MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME BRIEF SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUD BASES/CEILINGS AT INL IN THE
14-18Z TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE
FOR BRIEF FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR BRD AROUND SUNRISE AFTER THE
STRATUS PUSHES EAST OF THE TERMINAL, BUT DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAF AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW POTENTIAL. SOME SCT VFR DIURNAL
CUMULUS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATES TOWARDS SUNSET.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT,
BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AT 5-8 KT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 12-16 KT DURING DAYTIME MIXING, AND
THEN BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AGAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
NO MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
BECOME EASTERLY AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST, BUT WE
SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON GUSTS 10-15 MPH WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S TO MID 50S, WARMEST
FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES EAST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND INLAND
NW WI. GIVEN A SIGNAL FOR DEEPER MIXING HEIGHTS UP TO 4800-6000
FT THIS AFTERNOON, MIN RH VALUES HAVE BEEN NUDGED DOWN SLIGHTLY
TO 25-40%, AND BEING 25-35% FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO TWIN
PORTS AND INTO INLAND NW WI. POCKETS DOWN TO THE LOW 20S PERCENT
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY FOR THE WI PINE BARRENS AND
SNOW-FREE AREAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 1 OR MORE INCHES OF
RAINFALL FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO THE ARROWHEAD AND IN NW WI.
PORTIONS OF NW WI COULD SEE UP TO AROUND OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 2"
AS WELL GIVEN REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, DAILY
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL ABOVE FREEZING ARE LIKELY TO GET SNOW
TRANSFORMATION AND MELT STARTED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE
SNOWPACK ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH-CENTRAL MN, THE BRAINERD LAKES, I-35
CORRIDOR, AND SOUTHERN TIER OF WI COUNTIES IN OUR CWA IS FAIRLY
MINIMAL (LESS THAN 5" IN DEPTH AND 0.5-1.5" OF SWE) AND SEEMS LIKELY
TO MELT DOWN TO MOSTLY BARE GROUND BY SATURDAY. THE DAILY OVERNIGHT
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD HELP TO MAKE FOR A
STEADY, CONTROLLED MELT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE SOME INJECTION OF LIFE BACK INTO OUR AREA
WATERWAYS, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ANY FLOODING ISSUES.
COME SATURDAY, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS AND LOWS ABOVE FREEZING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF 24/7 SNOW MELT.
AREAS OF RAIN ARRIVE INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SEVERAL WAVES OF RAIN
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG A LINE FROM AITKIN TO ELY AND SOUTHEAST
WITH A 50-90% CHANCE OF RECEIVING AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IN THIS
PERIOD, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2"+ POSSIBLE IN NW WI. RATES
THEMSELVES ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT TO LEAD TO CLASSIC OVERLAND
FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING. WHERE THIS RAIN IS COMBINED WITH
SNOWMELT THERE ARE AREAL AND RIVERINE FLOODING CONCERNS. BY THIS
WEEKEND, IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THE ONLY AREAS WITH REMAINING
SNOWPACK WOULD BE THOSE ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORES WHERE SNOW
DEPTH IS STILL 8-30" WITH 2-8" OF SWE TODAY. WHILE SOME OF THAT SWE
IS EXPECTED TO MELT OUT BY SATURDAY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE PLENTY
LEFT BY THE TIME RAIN BEGINS. CURRENT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL RIVER FORECAST POINTS TO EXCEED THEIR
ACTION OR MINOR FLOOD STAGES ON THE KNIFE, NEMADJI, AND BAD RIVERS.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE TYLER FORKS RIVER MAY CREST INTO
ITS MODERATE FLOOD STAGE WHICH LEADS TO IMPACTS ALONG HIGHWAY 169
NORTHEAST OF MELLEN. ALONG THE NORTH SHORE ONSHORE WINDS COULD LEAD
TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS AND THE SOUTH SHORE MAY BE CLOSER
TO THE HIGHER SYNOPTIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS - SO BOTH AREAS OF REMAINING
SNOWPACK COULD ALSO BE UNDER SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHORE SHOULD HEED LATEST
FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...ROTHSTEIN
DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...ROTHSTEIN
MARINE...ROTHSTEIN/BJH
FIRE WEATHER...ROTHSTEIN
HYDROLOGY...LEVENS
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