238
FXUS63 KDLH 102335
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, THEN RAIN MOVES IN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY. SOME PLACES MAY SEE 1-2"+ OF
RAINFALL IN THAT PERIOD. MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE AND POSSIBLY THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
CURRENT WEATHER:
WE WARMLY WELCOME SPRING BACK TO THE NORTHLAND WITH SOME
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE IS
BRINGING WITH IT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, THOUGH THERE ARE PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUD OUT THERE. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING, BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST WIDESPREAD BELOW- FREEZING NIGHT FOR
SEVERAL DAYS AS WE GET MUCH WARMER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
LASTING THROUGH APPROXIMATELY WEDNESDAY. DETAILS ARE BELOW.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDERNEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF A BROAD
RIDGE WILL BRING A NOTEWORTHY STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA. ROBUST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AND INITIALLY IT SHOULD
TAKE A WHILE FOR SATURATION TO TAKE PLACE ON SATURDAY WITH
LINGERING DRY AIR IN PLACE. IT WILL LIKELY BE THE USUAL
INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY RAIN MAKING ITS WAY NORTH
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THIS SHOULD BE LARGELY SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN RAIN, THOUGH
ELEVATED LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, SO THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS FAR AS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS GO, IT IS LOOKING LIKE THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A MOISTURE
GRADIENT WITH PWATS UP TO AROUND 1.25" IN NW WI AND UP TO 1" IN
NE MN. NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SHOULD THEREFORE SEE THE BRUNT OF
THE RAINFALL SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. ENSEMBLES ARE
NOT NECESSARILY IN EXACT AGREEMENT WITH AMOUNTS, WITH A MEAN
AROUND 0.3 TO 0.6" IN NW WI INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CLUSTERING IS
NOT GREAT THOUGH, AND WITH AT LEAST SOME CONVECTIVE PROCESSES
EXPECTED, WE CAN EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER AND LOWER AMOUNTS.
AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY, IT'S STILL LOOKING LIKE WE HOLD ON TO A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WE
WILL HAVE VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING UP INTO THE NORTHLAND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH SOMETIME IN
THE EVENING. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY (DEPENDING HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT CAN MAKE IT) SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERMAL PROFILES IN NW WI SHOW DEEP NEAR-
SURFACE MOISTURE WITH SOMEWHAT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
MUCAPE IS LOOKING TO MAX OUT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG,
SO SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT WE COULD GET A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS, IT IS GOING TO BE WARM! MANY PLACES IN EAST-CENTRAL
MN INTO NW WI SHOULD SEE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR HIGHS.
AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WE MAY ACTUALLY
SWITCH INTO A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING:
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION IN ITS WAKE. BROAD SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS
EXPECTED FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THERE'S STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE- BASED INSTABILITY WILL
MAKE IT, SO THIS WILL BE ANOTHER CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. IF THERE ARE
ANY, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
REALLY THE BIG TRICK WITH MONDAY MIGHT BE DEALING WITH A LAKE
BREEZE AS WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE LAKE BUT REMAIN
SOUTHERLY DOWN TOWARDS PRICE COUNTY. EITHER WAY, WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, THOUGH IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
LESS INTENSE COMPARED TO SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY:
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW IS LIKELY TO PASS OVER WISCONSIN WITH A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT. THIS ONE WAS ORIGINALLY LOOKING
A BIT COLDER SUCH THAT SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD HAVE BEEN
POSSIBLE, BUT NOW IT'S LOOKING LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN.
WE MAY HAVE ENOUGH EMBEDDED INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SOMETIME AROUND WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE RAIN SHOULD
EVENTUALLY END.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND:
WE ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY WAVY UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES MID-WEEK, WE COULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S. MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SUGGESTING A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST THAT WOULD CREATE A
COLORADO-STYLE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDWEST
FOLLOWED BY A BLAST OF MUCH COOLER AIR TO BRING US INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT'S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE ANYTHING FROM THUNDERSTORMS
TO MIXED PRECIPITATION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTS. MODELS ARE TOO DIVERSE IN WHERE ANY LOWS
MIGHT TRACK RIGHT NOW, EXCEPT TO SAY THE MIDWEST IN GENERAL.
AFTER SEEING SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES (EVEN
AT NIGHT), WE MAY SEE LOWS FALL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN PERHAPS
AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
AREA OF BKN TO OVC CLOUDS AT 5KFT OR GREATER COVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MN, FROM INL TO CKC, AND EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH,
WINDS WILL HAVE A WESTERLY COMPONENT THIS EVENING AT 8-12KTS,
BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY MORNING, INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTS OF 20-22KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 11/18Z.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SPREADS NORTHWARD SATURDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAIN AT BRD AND HYR DURING THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
NO MAJOR MARINE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 15 KT. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE ON SUNDAY WITH A FEW GUSTS THAT COULD APPROACH 20
KT. EXPECT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE IN
SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE OPEN WATER DISCUSSION, REFER TO THE NWS MARQUETTE AREA
FORECAST DISCUSSION AT WEATHER.GOV/MQT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
THERE MAY BE SOME DRY WEATHER FRIDAY WITH MIN RH FALLING BELOW
40% IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OUT AHEAD OF RAIN MOVING IN, BUT WITH
WIND GUSTS BELOW 20 MPH, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MINIMAL. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY IN SEVERAL
ROUNDS. THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL PROBABLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. WE MAY HAVE A DRY, WARM, AND
POSSIBLY BREEZY DAY IN THE WORKS FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST PRODUCT FOR A MORE THOROUGH
BREAKDOWN OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
IN WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING IMPACTFUL FLOODING IN THESE AREAS IS
ABOUT 50%, SO THIS ISN'T A HIGH CONFIDENCE WATCH BY ANY MEANS.
THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL INCHES OF REMAINING SNOWPACK FOR SOME
AREAS, MAINLY IN NORTHERN IRON COUNTY AND THE BAYFIELD
PENINSULA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS COULD TIP THE SCALE FOR THERE
TO BE SOME MINOR FLOODING. THIS IS GOING TO BE CONDITIONAL ON
ALL INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER SUCH THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
FALL OVER THE PRE-EXISTING SNOW. IF THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ENDS UP BEING LIGHTER, ADDITIONAL
IMPACTS BEYOND THAT MAY BE MINIMAL SUCH THAT THE WATCH MAY BE
CANCELLED EARLY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CONCERN HAS BEEN THE NORTH SHORE, WHERE 12"+
SNOW DEPTHS AND SWES >7" STILL PERSIST. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MODERATED BY LAKE SUPERIOR SUCH THAT RAPID SNOWMELT THAT WOULD
RESULT IN FLOODING IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED EXCEPT PERHAPS
LOCALLY. THEREFORE, NO FLOOD HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED THERE
FOR NOW.
THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL LIKELY
BE SLIGHTLY MORE INTENSE THAN WHAT FOLLOWS IT IN THE DAYS
FOLLOWING, SO THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL
THEREAFTER. AS FAR AS INDIVIDUAL RIVERS/STREAMS, THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SOME POTENTIAL MINOR FLOODING REMAINS WITH THE
TYLER FORKS NEAR MELLEN, WHICH MAY GET TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON IF RAIN IS HEAVY ENOUGH AND WATER IN REMAINING
SNOW PACK. NO HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS OF NOW. OTHER
REGIONAL RIVERS/STREAMS LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE PRETTY WELL
BEHAVED BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR UPCOMING RAINFALL.
DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR WIZ002>004.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...JDS
FIRE WEATHER...JDS
HYDROLOGY...JDS
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